New York
Trump's Biggest Gains. AOC's Toughest Choice. Reagan's Ghost.
Trump beat his 2020 margin in AOC's 14th Congressional District by more than he did in any other district in the country. And Zohran Mamdani's shocking win over Andrew Cuomo showed up clearly the mood of today's Democratic primary voters and made clear that AOC will have a tough choice between running for president and primarying Chuck Schumer. Plus a trip down memory lane to when Ronald Reagan won New York State. Twice.
Presidential Results by Congressional District
All 26 CDs swung toward Trump in 2024
| District | Rep | 2020 | 2024 | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY-14 | Ocasio-Cortez (D) | D+55.6 | D+32.4 | R+23.3 |
| NY-06 | Meng (D) | D+29.6 | D+6.5 | R+23.1 |
| NY-15 | Torres (D) | D+71.0 | D+48.8 | R+22.2 |
| NY-05 | Meeks (D) | D+62.7 | D+42.8 | R+19.9 |
| NY-13 | Espaillat (D) | D+77.7 | D+60.3 | R+17.4 |
| NY-11 | Malliotakis (R) | R+7.7 | R+24.8 | R+17.1 |
| NY-03 | D'Esposito (R) | D+11.4 | R+4.3 | R+15.7 |
| NY-07 | Velázquez (D) | D+61.1 | D+47.2 | R+13.9 |
| NY-04 | Gillen (D) | D+14.7 | D+1.3 | R+13.4 |
| NY-16 | Latimer (D) | D+45.0 | D+33.3 | R+11.7 |
| NY-02 | Garbarino (R) | R+2.5 | R+14.1 | R+11.6 |
| NY-08 | Jeffries (D) | D+55.9 | D+44.7 | R+11.2 |
| NY-09 | Clarke (D) | D+52.5 | D+41.5 | R+11.0 |
| NY-10 | Goldman (D) | D+71.5 | D+61.9 | R+9.6 |
| NY-17 | Lawler (R) | D+10.2 | D+0.6 | R+9.6 |
| NY-01 | LaLota (R) | R+1.8 | R+10.2 | R+8.4 |
| NY-12 | Nadler (D) | D+72.1 | D+64.9 | R+7.2 |
| NY-26 | Kennedy (D) | D+25.6 | D+19.6 | R+6.0 |
| NY-18 | Ryan (D) | D+9.2 | D+3.4 | R+5.8 |
| NY-20 | Tonko (D) | D+19.5 | D+14.3 | R+5.2 |
| NY-21 | Stefanik (R) | R+16.0 | R+20.8 | R+4.8 |
| NY-22 | Williams (D) | D+11.6 | D+7.7 | R+3.9 |
| NY-19 | Molinaro (R) | D+4.6 | D+1.8 | R+2.8 |
| NY-23 | Langworthy (R) | R+18.6 | R+21.2 | R+2.6 |
| NY-24 | Tenney (R) | R+20.7 | R+23.2 | R+2.5 |
| NY-25 | Morelle (D) | D+21.1 | D+18.7 | R+2.4 |
Swung R+23.3 points—the largest shift of any congressional district in America. The Bronx and Queens working-class Latino communities that anchor this district moved massively toward Trump—a warning sign for Democrats nationally.
Machine Politics: The Pattern That Explains Everything
Trump didn't break the machine—he became it
The Historical Pattern
New York's immigrant communities have never voted on ideology. They vote on patronage, protection, and presence. Tammany Hall won Irish votes by showing up at funerals and finding jobs. The Brooklyn Democratic machine won Jewish and Italian votes the same way.
Trump's gains in Flushing, Jackson Heights, and the South Bronx follow this exact pattern. He didn't convert voters ideologically—he out-machined the Democrats by showing up, speaking their language of economic grievance, and offering a patron-client relationship the modern Democratic Party refuses to provide.
Borough-Level Patterns (Verified Data)
62% non-English at home; D+67.5→D+44.9
58% non-English at home; D+45.2→D+24.1
47% non-English at home; D+54.8→D+43.0
37% non-English at home; D+74.5→D+63.6
The Key Insight
The pattern is clear across all four boroughs: the higher the non-English speaking population, the larger the swing toward Trump. This isn't about immigration policy—immigrants voted for Reagan, Giuliani, and Bloomberg too. It's about which party offers a transactional relationship that machine-politics-acculturated communities understand.
Democrats lost these votes by becoming the party of process, institutions, and abstract principles. Trump won them by being the party of "I'll fight for you personally."
2025 NYC Mayoral Election: Precinct Results
Mamdani's coalition mapped at the Election District level
2025 NYC Mayoral Election
Zohran Mamdani defeats Andrew Cuomo in historic victory - precinct-level results
Loading precinct map...
The Mamdani Coalition: A Political Experiment
Can socially conservative immigrants align with progressive politics?
What United the Coalition
Mamdani's "Good Cause" eviction protections resonated across ethnic lines. Working-class immigrants facing 40%+ rent burdens share material interests regardless of cultural differences.
His vocal opposition to Israel's Gaza operations mobilized Muslim, Arab, and progressive Jewish voters simultaneously. Cuomo's AIPAC ties became a liability.
Immigrant communities distrustful of both parties saw Mamdani as genuinely outside the machine. Speaking Gujarati helped—authenticity matters.
Fault Lines to Watch
Many immigrant parents—Muslim, Orthodox Jewish, South Asian—oppose progressive curriculum on gender/sexuality. Mamdani governed cautiously here, but tensions simmer.
Religious conservatives in his coalition hold views incompatible with DSA's platform on LGBTQ+ issues. This alliance requires active coalition management.
Immigrant small business owners want aggressive policing; progressive activists want police reform. Mamdani's first year will test whether he can satisfy both.
FDR united socially conservative Catholics, Southern segregationists, and labor liberals through economic common ground. That coalition held for 40 years before cultural issues shattered it. Mamdani's experiment asks: can economic populism + foreign policy alignment hold together culturally incompatible groups in 21st century NYC? Early results are promising, but the test comes when governing requires choosing sides.
Data source: NYC Board of Elections • Map boundaries: NYC Dept. of City Planning
The Cuomo Curse: Father and Son
History repeats with eerie precision
Mario Cuomo, 1977
Lost to Ed Koch in Democratic primary
Mario Cuomo, then Secretary of State, ran for NYC Mayor in 1977. He lost the Democratic primary runoff to Ed Koch 45-55%.
Refusing to accept defeat, Mario ran in the general election on the Liberal Party line and came within 9 points of winning—finishing with 41.1% to Koch's 50.0%.
Andrew Cuomo, 2025
Lost to Zohran Mamdani in Democratic primary
Andrew Cuomo, disgraced former governor attempting a comeback, lost the Democratic mayoral primary to Zohran Mamdani, who ran on progressive economics and Gaza opposition.
Like his father, Andrew refused to accept the result and ran in the general election on third-party lines—with nearly identical results.
The Eerie Parallel
48 years apart, father and son both lost NYC Democratic mayoral primaries, both refused to accept the result, both ran third-party general election campaigns, and both ended up with strikingly similar results: Mario got 41.1%, Andrew got 41.3%. The Cuomo political instinct—ambition over party loyalty—appears to be hereditary.
Republicans Have Won New York Before
The Empire State was a battleground within living memory
Ronald Reagan
Won NY twice (1980, 1984)
Last Republican to win New York's electoral votes. Carter and Mondale lost the state by comfortable margins.
Republican Governors
10 terms in the 20th century
NYC Republican Mayors
20 years of GOP control (1994-2013)
1948-2004: The Competitive Era
From 1948 to 2004, New York voted Republican in 6 of 15 presidential elections. Dewey (1948), Eisenhower (1952, 1956), Nixon (1972), and Reagan (1980, 1984) all carried the state.
The perception of New York as an unwinnable Democratic stronghold is historically recent—dating only to Obama's 2008 coalition. Trump's 2024 performance (D+12.5) is closer to the historical norm than Biden's 2020 landslide (D+23.1).
Regional Analysis
Seven distinct political regions
Regional Analysis
New York's 7 distinct political regions, from deep-blue NYC to Trump-country upstate.
New Square: The Purest Bloc Vote in America
From Hillary 100-0 to Trump 100-0
The New Square Flip
New Square, NY (pop. 9,000) is a Hasidic Orthodox village where the entire community votes as one—following rabbinic endorsement.
Why the flip? The Skverer Rebbe's endorsement shifted after Trump recognized Jerusalem, granted a community pardon, and championed religious liberty.
Impact: Part of 50,000+ Orthodox votes in Rockland County that helped Rep. Mike Lawler (R) win a Biden+10 district.
Six election districts in the Town of Ramapo (which includes New Square, Kaser, and Monsey) voted 99.6-99.8% Republican in 2024.
Battleground House Districts
Where control of Congress is decided
2024 Battleground Districts
New York's most competitive House races—where control of Congress was decided.
Lawler expanded his margin from +0.8 to +6.3 despite $8.0M in IE spending against him. He won a Biden+10 (2020) / Harris+0.6 (2024) district—extraordinary ticket-splitting. Jones, seeking to return after losing his Queens seat to redistricting, was attacked as an out-of-touch carpetbagger.
Lawler is one of only 5 House Republicans representing a district Biden won in 2020.
Riley avenged his 2022 loss in the costliest rematch in NY history. Despite $11M+ in opposition spending against each candidate, Riley's focus on abortion rights and local economic issues overcame the district's rural Republican lean.
Molinaro was Dutchess County Executive for 12 years and the 2018 GOP gubernatorial nominee.
Gillen flipped this South Shore Nassau seat by making D'Esposito's scandals the centerpiece—he employed his fiancée and another romantic partner on his congressional staff. $10.5M in Democratic IE hammered the corruption message. The district swung from Biden+14.5 to Trump+1.3 presidentially, but Gillen still won.
D'Esposito was the only freshman Republican to lose reelection in 2024.
State Senator Mannion flipped the Syracuse seat decisively—a 11-point swing from 2022. His local name recognition and union backing proved devastating to Williams, who struggled to connect with moderate suburbanites. The district stayed blue presidentially (Harris+8 in 2024).
Largest swing of any NY battleground from 2022 to 2024.
Suozzi reclaimed his old seat after George Santos' expulsion, winning a February special election then holding in November. He ran as a "Biden Democrat but not a crazy Democrat," emphasizing border security to win back suburban swing voters. The district swung from Biden+11 to Trump+4 presidentially.
First member of Congress to win back a seat they previously held in NY since 1990.
Army veteran Ryan expanded his margin from +2.3 to +14 points. A West Point grad, he neutralized Republican attacks on national security while hammering abortion rights and kitchen-table economics. The district stayed blue presidentially but narrowed from Biden+9 (2020) to Harris+3 (2024).
Ryan's 2022 special election win (on abortion) was the first major sign of Dobbs backlash.
Former CNN anchor Avlon outraised LaLota but couldn't overcome the district's rightward shift. The seat swung from Trump+2 (2020) to Trump+10 (2024) presidentially, and LaLota rode that wave to nearly double his 2022 margin.
NY-1 covers the Hamptons, North Fork wine country, and working-class Riverhead—three very different political worlds.