The counties that flipped, shifted, or held the line in the Trump-Harris race
The 2024 election saw a nationwide rightward shift compared to 2020. Across
all 3,143 counties, the average swing was approximately 3.8 points toward
Republicans. But the national average obscures vastly different stories
playing out in different regions.
Some counties that Biden won in 2020 swung to Trump. Others that were already
red got redder. And a small number of counties bucked the trend entirely,
moving toward Democrats in a Republican year.
The Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio were
ground zero for the 2024 swing. These states contain a mix of shrinking
industrial cities, growing suburbs, and rural communities that each
responded differently to the Trump-Harris contest.
The pattern: urban areas held for Democrats but often with reduced margins,
while suburban counties saw the most competitive races. Rural counties
continued their consolidation toward Republicans.
Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina represent the new frontier
of competitive elections. These states saw some of the tightest margins
in the country, with individual counties often deciding statewide outcomes
by thousands of votes.
The Sun Belt swing story is driven by two forces: rapid demographic change
in suburban counties and differential turnout patterns between 2020 and 2024.
Every county on Akashic Edge includes swing analysis comparing any two
elections. See how your county shifted from 2020 to 2024, or compare
any pair of elections going back to 1868.
Want to explore this further?
“Which 10 counties had the biggest swing toward Democrats in 2024?”Explore county-level swing data at akashicedge.com.
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