Jefferson County, Missouri: Declining Industrial Metro
Missouri · Presidential Elections 1892–2024
R+36.6
2024 Margin
R+3.2%
2020→2024 Swing
R since 2012
Voting Streak
🏭 Rust Belt
Classification
227K
Population
Jefferson County, Missouri voted R+36.6 for Donald Trump in 2024, with Trump receiving 80,796 votes (67.42%). This represented a R+3.2% swing toward Republicans compared to 2020. The county has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2012.
Electoral Behavior
🏭
Declining Industrial MetroView all
Rust Belt urban centers that voted for Obama but have shifted dramatically toward Republicans. Former manufacturing hubs experiencing economic decline and Democratic erosion.
Volatility
7.4
Elasticity
Moderate
Trend
-1.8/yr (red)
Quick Stats
2024 ResultR+36.6
2020→2024 SwingR+3.2%
Voting StreakR since 2012
Elections on Record34
Demographics
Population226,739
Median Age
39.9(US: 38.4)
College (BA+)
31.2%(US: 47.9%)
Median Income
$77,217(US: $78k)
White (non-Hisp)
89.0%(US: 57.5%)
Hispanic
2.5%(US: 18.6%)
Black
1.0%(US: 12.3%)
Homeownership
81.4%(US: 64.2%)
Poverty Rate
8.6%(US: 12.4%)
Veterans
7.9%(US: 6.4%)
Presidential Elections
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 30.9%(36,965) | 67.4%(80,796) | R+36.6 | -3.2 |
| 2020 | 32.3%(37,856) | 65.7%(77,046) | R+33.4 | +1.6 |
| 2016 | 29.5%(31,568) | 64.5%(69,036) | R+35.0 | -22.4 |
| 2012 | 42.4%(41,564) | 55.1%(53,978) | R+12.7 | -15.2 |
| 2008 | 50.6%(53,467) | 48.1%(50,804) | D+2.5 | +3.1 |
| 2004 | 49.4%(46,057) | 50.0%(46,624) | R+0.6 | -3.0 |
| 2000 | 50.0%(38,616) | 47.6%(36,766) | D+2.4 | -10.0 |
| 1996 | 48.5%(32,073) | 36.1%(23,877) | D+12.4 | -3.8 |
| 1992 | 44.3%(32,569) | 28.1%(20,637) | D+16.2 | +18.9 |
| 1988 | 48.5%(27,738) | 51.2%(29,279) | R+2.7 | +23.9 |
Senate Elections
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 35.2%(41,469) | 62.1%(73,111) | R+26.9 | -0.8 |
| 2022 | 37.0%(28,653) | 63.0%(48,845) | R+26.1 | -13.6 |
| 2018 | 41.9%(37,915) | 54.3%(49,142) | R+12.4 | -6.5 |
| 2016 | 44.4%(46,975) | 50.3%(53,218) | R+5.9 | -19.4 |
| 2012 | 53.5%(51,862) | 40.0%(38,745) | D+13.5 | +28.5 |
| 2010 | 38.9%(25,689) | 53.8%(35,585) | R+15.0 | -24.5 |
| 2006 | 53.3%(39,271) | 43.8%(32,232) | D+9.6 | +12.5 |
| 2004 | 47.9%(44,469) | 50.8%(47,203) | R+2.9 | -8.5 |
| 2002 | 52.1%(32,497) | 46.5%(29,018) | D+5.6 | -2.6 |
| 2000 | 53.5%(41,321) | 45.3%(34,980) | D+8.2 | -1.1 |
Governor Elections
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 30.6%(35,753) | 67.0%(78,385) | R+36.4 | -6.1 |
| 2020 | 33.6%(38,866) | 63.9%(73,942) | R+30.3 | -19.4 |
| 2016 | 42.7%(45,234) | 53.6%(56,755) | R+10.9 | -24.8 |
| 2012 | 55.7%(53,971) | 41.8%(40,470) | D+13.9 | -15.5 |
| 2008 | 63.9%(66,697) | 34.4%(35,947) | D+29.4 | +29.4 |
| 2004 | 49.3%(45,909) | 49.2%(45,891) | D+0.0 | -2.3 |
| 2000 | 49.3%(37,808) | 47.0%(36,060) | D+2.3 | -6.8 |
| 1996 | 53.0%(34,970) | 43.9%(28,986) | D+9.1 | -17.4 |
| 1992 | 63.2%(45,667) | 36.8%(26,542) | D+26.5 | +51.7 |
| 1988 | 36.9%(21,104) | 62.1%(35,559) | R+25.2 | -14.1 |