How did NY-21, New York vote in the 2024 presidential election?

NY-21, New York voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+15.3. The Democratic candidate received 136,237 votes and the Republican candidate received 185,792 out of 323,842 total votes cast, a 5.0-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is NY-21, New York's political history?

NY-21, New York has 5 presidential elections on record, spanning 2008 to 2024. Democrats have won 2 and Republicans 3 of those contests. The largest single-election swing was 20.0 points in 2016.

What are the demographics of NY-21, New York?

NY-21, New York has a population of 770,419 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 88.6% non-Hispanic white, 3.8% Hispanic, 2.3% Black. About 26% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $70,983.

New York's 21st Congressional District

New York · Latest: 2024↓ R+3.9 vs 2022

Safe Republican — flipped 2 times in 25 elections

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POPULATION
770K
HOUSE MARGIN
R+23.2
2024
PRES MARGIN
R+15.3
2024
LEAN
Likely R
COLLEGE+
26%

Place Story

What defines New York's 21st Congressional District

Methodology

Leans Republican since 2016
- Likely R
- 3 straight R wins
Biggest swing: R+20.0 in 2016
- 2012 → 2016
Volatile behavior — treat historical margins with caution.
Demographically distinctive: 89% non-Hispanic white (+31pp vs national)
- 89% non-Hispanic white (+31pp vs national)
- 4% Hispanic (-16pp vs national)
Ticket-splitting: President ran 19.5pp ahead of House
- Divergence 19.5pp in 2016
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.

District in State Context

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Precinct Deep Dive

2024 / 2020 precinct vintages

See how each split precinct fragment inside NY-21 voted, swung, and lines up demographically.

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Historian Query

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Explore this district's political evolution with the Historian

“How has New York's 21st Congressional District voted in House elections since 2000?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

NY-21Census ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 88.6%Hispanic 3.8%Multiracial 3.7%Black 2.3%Asian 1.0%Native American 0.6%

Group	NY-21	State	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	88.6%	52.8%	57.4%
▶Hispanic / Latino(19)	3.8%	19.8%	19.3%
Multiracial / Other	3.7%	3.4%	4.0%
▶Black / African American(12)	2.3%	14.4%	12.2%
▶Asian(6)	1.0%	9.1%	6.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(9)	0.8%	—	0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2)	0.6%	0.6%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

NY-21 vs New York vs National770K residents

26% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 7pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+3 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

770K

local

770KState 19.9MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.23%

local

0.23%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

75.0%

local

75.0%State 76.5%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$70,983

local

$70,983State $89,823National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

13.1%

local

13.1%State 14.0%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

26.2%

local

26.2%State 40.0%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

72.6%

local

72.6%State 54.4%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

42.4 yrs

local

42.4 yrsState 39.9 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

15.2%

local

15.2%State 15.9%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

20.4%

local

20.4%State 17.9%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

3.3%

local

3.3%State 22.8%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

5.6%

local

5.6%State 30.9%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

94.4%

local

94.4%State 69.1%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in NY-21

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.

2024 Turnout

56.0%

vs Previous

+0.6pp

Voting-Age Pop

577,865

History

2008–2024

Competitiveness

How competitive is NY-21?

Likely RAvg margin: R+13.1 (last 3 elections)

2008

D+4.9

2012

D+6.3

2016

R+13.7

2020

R+10.3

2024

R+15.3

Elasticity

21.6pp

margin range

Party Flips

last 30 years

5-Elec Avg

R+5.6

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in NY-21 split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (40/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs House	R+15.3	R+23.2	7.9pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 11.6pp

New York Comparison Set

Other New York Districts

Compare the rest of the delegation at a glance, with each card anchored to the latest House margin on current district pages.

50 sibling districts

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