Mike Dunleavy (R) retiring
explore / Contest Page
Read the current governor state first, then inspect ratings, polling, markets, fundraising, and history for Alaska in one evidence flow.
Evidence & provenance
Source owners
Akashic Edge race ratings, polling ingests, Polymarket odds, fundraising files, and U.S. Census context.
Freshness
Rendered Apr 14, 2026 from the latest stored polling, market, and race-rating snapshots.
Boundary scope
2026 statewide race page for the current state and office only.
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Manual race ratings, stored live-market snapshots, polling context, and deterministic demographic history.
Polling and market panels fail closed. If a feed is missing or stale, this page states that directly instead of implying current coverage.
Alaska's first open-seat gubernatorial race under ranked-choice voting now has 16 candidates and the dynamics have shifted. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins raised $750K in his first two weeks, instantly becoming the top Democratic fundraiser, while Begich has $348K raised with $215K on hand. Dahlstrom — supposedly the GOP establishment pick — has raised just $18K with $5K cash, making her a paper candidate. Republican Matt Heilala leads overall fundraising at $1.3M (mostly self-funded). Data for Progress RCV simulations show Begich could win the general by picking up moderate Republican second-choice votes. Peltola now appears headed toward a Senate run rather than governor. A second ballot measure to repeal RCV will appear on the 2026 ballot (the 2024 repeal failed by just 743 votes). The fragmented 16-candidate field under RCV makes this genuinely competitive.
Updated 2026-03-03