Tony Evers (D) retiring
explore / Contest Page
Read the current governor state first, then inspect ratings, polling, markets, fundraising, and history for Wisconsin in one evidence flow.
Evidence & provenance
Source owners
Akashic Edge race ratings, polling ingests, Polymarket odds, fundraising files, and U.S. Census context.
Freshness
Rendered Mar 17, 2026 from the latest stored polling, market, and race-rating snapshots.
Boundary scope
2026 statewide race page for the current state and office only.
Claim type
Manual race ratings, stored live-market snapshots, polling context, and deterministic demographic history.
Polling and market panels fail closed. If a feed is missing or stale, this page states that directly instead of implying current coverage.
Wisconsin is the ultimate tossup state — presidential races decided by less than a point in 2016, 2020, and 2024, and Evers won his first term by just 1.1 points. The Marquette February poll shows the D primary wide open: Hong 11%, Barnes 10%, Rodriguez 6%, Crowley 3%, with 65% undecided. Rodriguez has the strongest institutional backing ($2M DLGA independent expenditure plus AFSCME) despite lagging in polls. Barnes raised $556K in one month from 3,790 donations but his 2022 Senate loss haunts the electability argument. Tiffany is effectively uncontested in the GOP primary at 35% after Trump's endorsement cleared the field, though 63% of R voters remain undecided. Cook rates this Toss Up. The environment gives Democrats the edge, but this is Wisconsin — nothing is safe.
Updated 2026-03-03