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      Data: MIT Election Lab, VEST, Census Bureau
      Home›States›Arizona

      Arizona

      R+5.5↓ R+5.8 vs 2020· Latest: 2024

      Leans Republican — shifted 5.8pp toward Republicans in 2024

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      “Show me presidential margins in Arizona by county for 2024 vs 2020”

      Key Insights

      • Has flipped parties 7 times since 1912
      • Split-ticket voting in 2024: Different parties won President and Senate

      Smart Insights

      111 elections analyzed

      AI-generated analysis of voting patterns and trends in Arizona.

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      Recent Elections

      2024 Presidential Election in Arizona2024 Senate Election in Arizona2022 Governor Election in Arizona

      Who lives in Arizona? 7,378,838 residents as of the 2020 Census.

      Demographics

      Arizona vs National

      Population

      Total Population
      7.4M
      National: 334.9M
      Share of US Population
      2.20%
      National: 100%
      Voting Age Population
      76.2%
      National: 75.7%

      Language at Home

      Non-English at Home
      25.7%
      National: 22.2%
      English Only
      74.3%
      National: 77.8%

      Economic

      Median Household Income
      $80,891
      National: $83,960
      Poverty Rate
      12.5%
      National: 12.5%
      College Degree
      33.4%
      National: 35.6%
      Homeownership
      67.4%
      National: 65.2%

      Age & Other

      Median Age
      39.3 yrs
      National: 39.1 yrs
      Age 18-29
      16.3%
      National: 15.7%
      Age 65+
      18.9%
      National: 17.0%
      Foreign Born
      13.0%
      National: 14.1%

      Who Lives Here

      Arizona — Census ACS 2024

      White (Non-Hispanic) 52.6%Hispanic 31.4%Black 4.6%Native American 4.0%Multiracial 3.7%Asian 3.6%
      GroupArizonaNational
      ▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)
      52.6%57.4%
      ▶Hispanic / Latino(19)
      31.4%19.3%
      ▶Black(15)
      4.6%12.2%
      ▶Native American / Alaska Native(9)
      4.0%0.9%
      Multiracial / Other
      3.7%4.0%
      ▶Asian(6)
      3.6%6.0%
      ▶Middle Eastern / North African(11)
      0.8%0.9%
      ▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(6)
      0.2%0.2%

      Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

      Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

      MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

      Religious Adherents

      Population that are religious adherents:
      42.7%(3.2M people)
      U.S. Religion Census 2020
      Tradition% of AdherentsUS Average
      Catholic
      48.3%—
      Evangelical Protestant
      24.1%—
      Other
      22.4%—
      LDS (Mormon)
      13.9%—
      Mainline Protestant
      3.7%—
      Black Protestant
      0.8%—
      Orthodox Christian
      0.7%—
      Click tradition names to expand denominations. Percentages show share of religious adherents (not total population).

      Similar States

      Based on demographic + political profile
      New MexicoNM
      Sunbelt Battleground
      84%

      Similar States

      Based on demographic + political profile
      TexasTX
      Sunbelt Battleground
      82%
      CaliforniaCA
      Strong Dem, Dense Coast
      71%
      FloridaFL
      Sunbelt Battleground
      70%
      NevadaNV
      Sunbelt Battleground
      69%
      OklahomaOK
      Lean Rep, Rural Midwest/Mountain
      61%
      ColoradoCO
      Competitive, Lean Dem
      60%
      IdahoID
      Lean Rep, Rural Midwest/Mountain
      59%

      More Similar States

      7 more similar states

      See 7 more states with voting patterns like Arizona.

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