Skip to main content

Ken Paxton

Undefeated state senate candidate from Texas with a perfect 3-0 record

Republican
State SenateState House
Electoral Grade
—
Requires 3+ graded races
3
Races
3-0
W-L (100%)
-40.2
Avg Margin
2004–2012
Career Span
Best: +-27.7 (2012 State Senate)Worst: -52.1 (2004 State House)
100%
Win Rate
3
Win Streak
8 yrs
Career Span
267K
Career Votes

Evidence & provenance

Source owners

Certified contest returns, candidate career records, and Akashic Edge deterministic grading inputs.

Freshness

Rendered Apr 14, 2026 from the latest candidate, contest, and forecast tables loaded in Akashic Edge.

Boundary scope

Candidate-level profile spanning every contest recorded for this person in Akashic Edge.

Claim type

Deterministic summaries, calculated grades, and certified election history. No freeform AI prose.

Source chain

MethodologyCertified contest returnsCandidate grade inputs
Open methodology
2026
Tilt R
TX SenateDeclared

Democrats got the matchup they wanted. Talarico defeated Crockett 52-47 in the March 4 primary, and the Republican side is headed to a May 26 runoff between Cornyn (43%) and Paxton (41%) — a fight that has already cost $122M in ad spending and will drain GOP resources through late spring. Talarico is a 36-year-old former middle school teacher running a populist, faith-based campaign without the baggage of a DC record. Trump won Texas by 14 in 2024, but a Cornyn-Paxton runoff guarantees months of intra-party warfare, and the 2026 national environment heavily favors Democrats. Texas still requires everything to break right, but this is now a real race. Tilt R.

vs.James Talarico
View race details

Career Margin Trend3 races

State House
State Senate
R+30EvenD+302004: R+52.1 - Click to view2006: R+40.9 - Click to view2012: R+27.7 - Click to view200420062012

Career Timeline

2012 State SenateTexasDistrict 8
178,238
Candidate Votes
62.3%
Vote %
286,147
Total Votes
-27.7%
Margin
Top opponent: Jack G Ternan Jr.DEM

Key Insights

2 insights generated

Deterministic highlights from career record, margins, and standout performances.

Unlock with Pro$33/mo

Geographic Performance

3 races with county data

County-level results, strongest and weakest counties, and performance by county type.

Unlock with Pro$33/mo

County Results Table

Sortable, searchable table of every county result for each race.

Unlock with Pro$33/mo

Demographic Coalition Analysis

3 races available

Scatter plots correlating county performance with demographics: race, education, income, foreign-born.

Unlock with Insider$99/mo

Opponents Faced3 opponents

Jack G Ternan Jr.DEM
1-02012 State Senate(-27.7)
Rick KosterDEM
1-02006 State House(-40.9)
Martin WoodwardDEM
1-02004 State House(-52.1)
Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Curious about Ken Paxton's performance?

Ask the Historian

Interactive AI-powered chat about Ken Paxton's career, opponents, and performance.

Unlock with Insider$99/mo
Export & ShareCSV (Insider)JSON (Insider)
Share

Explore Related

Texas
Election history and demographics for Texas
2012 Elections
All results from 2012
Rankings
Who overperformed their state's partisan lean?
Historian
Ask any question about 165 years of elections
2026 Elections
Forecasts, polling, and battleground races in one place
← All candidates