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      Data: MIT Election Lab, VEST, Census Bureau
      Home/Elections/2026/US Senate/Texas
      2026 ForecastLean R
      2026·US Senate·Texas

      Texas US Senate

      Incumbent
      RJohn Cornyn
      Senate Class 2

      Race Analysis

      Beto O'Rourke proved Texas was within reach, if only for a moment. Despite its turn red in 2024, the very people Trump is losing are often his new supporters in Texas. If Talarico beats Crockett — if Crockett's the nominee, it's immediately Safe GOP. Only a chance for Dems with a perfect storm: candidate misfires after a contentious primary, all compounding.

      Updated 2026-02-18

      State Demographics

      Texas vs. National · Pop. 30.2M

      White (non-Hispanic)39.1%
      National: 57.4%
      Black12.2%
      National: 12.2%
      Hispanic/Latino39.7%
      National: 19.3%
      Asian5.6%
      National: 6.0%
      College Degree33.7%
      National: 35.6%
      Median Income$80,443
      National: $83,960
      Median Age35.7
      National: 39.1

      Seat History

      US Senate in Texas(Class II)

      2024
      Ted CruzREP
      R+8.5
      2020
      John CornynREP
      R+9.6
      2018
      Ted CruzREP
      R+2.6
      2014
      John CornynREP
      R+27.2
      2012
      Ted CruzREP
      R+15.8
      2008
      John CornynREP
      R+12.0
      2006
      Kay Bailey HutchisonREP
      R+25.6
      2002
      John CornynREP
      R+12.0
      2000
      Kay Bailey HutchisonREP
      R+32.7
      1996
      Phil GrammREP
      R+10.8
      1994
      Kay Bailey HutchisonREP
      R+22.5
      1993(S)
      Kay Bailey HutchisonREP
      R+34.7
      1990
      Phil GrammREP
      R+22.8
      1988
      Lloyd BentsenDEM
      D+19.2
      1984
      Phil GrammREP
      R+17.2
      View all US Senate history for Texas →

      Also in Texas, 2026

      Governor
      Safe R
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