explore / Contest Page
Read the current governor state first, then inspect ratings, polling, markets, fundraising, and history for New Hampshire in one evidence flow.
Evidence & provenance
Source owners
Akashic Edge race ratings, polling ingests, Polymarket odds, fundraising files, and U.S. Census context.
Freshness
Rendered Apr 14, 2026 from the latest stored polling, market, and race-rating snapshots.
Boundary scope
2026 statewide race page for the current state and office only.
Claim type
Manual race ratings, stored live-market snapshots, polling context, and deterministic demographic history.
Polling and market panels fail closed. If a feed is missing or stale, this page states that directly instead of implying current coverage.
Ayotte's numbers have deteriorated sharply since taking office. The February UNH poll shows her approval at 47-47 (net +0), down from +9 at inauguration, with only 88% of Republicans behind her (down from 93%) and just 9% of Democrats. Only 41% say she deserves another term vs. 38% who say no. The ICE detention facility fight in Merrimack has drawn protests from both sides and appears to be dragging her numbers. Warmington entered on February 18 with a focus on affordability and opposing school vouchers. New Hampshire has voted Democratic for president since 2004 and the midterm environment helps. This was Tilt R when Ayotte looked like a popular moderate governor — her approval trajectory is moving this toward Toss Up.
Updated 2026-03-03