New Hampshire US Senate

Open Seat

Jeanne Shaheen (D) retiring

Senate Class 2

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Read the current us senate state first, then inspect ratings, polling, markets, fundraising, and history for New Hampshire in one evidence flow.

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Evidence & provenance

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Akashic Edge race ratings, polling ingests, Polymarket odds, fundraising files, and U.S. Census context.

Freshness

Rendered Apr 14, 2026 from the latest stored polling, market, and race-rating snapshots.

Boundary scope

2026 statewide race page for the current state and office only.

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Manual race ratings, stored live-market snapshots, polling context, and deterministic demographic history.

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Prediction markets

Live Polymarket prices available

Latest stored market snapshot: Feb 10, 2026.

Race Analysis

Shaheen's retirement opens NH's first Senate vacancy since 2010, but Pappas starts in a strong position — he represents half the state in NH-01, outraised both Republican candidates combined in Q4 2025, and leads all GOP contenders in head-to-head polling. Sununu (82% on Polymarket) has Trump's endorsement and NRSC backing for the primary, but Brown is staying in, forcing a bruising contest through the late September 8 primary while Pappas runs unopposed. Sununu hasn't won an election in nearly two decades, and Trump's endorsement may help him in the primary but complicates his general election pitch in a state that went for Harris. NH independents who want to vote for an idiosyncratic Republican will have Ayotte on the ballot for governor — that valve makes ticket-splitting toward the Senate Democrat easier, not harder. Likely D.

Updated 2026-03-03