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      Data: MIT Election Lab, VEST, Census Bureau
      Home/Elections/2026/US Senate/Iowa
      2026 ForecastTilt R
      2026·US Senate·Iowa

      Iowa US Senate

      Open Seat

      Joni Ernst (R) retiring

      Senate Class 2

      Race Analysis

      Democrats have a couple of decent to excellent candidates running, but this is a rare race where the incumbent hanging things up almost certainly works against Democrats. Ernst's likely replacement has a great electoral track record and raises lots of money.

      Updated 2026-02-18

      State Demographics

      Iowa vs. National · Pop. 3.2M

      White (non-Hispanic)82.3%
      National: 57.4%
      Black3.9%
      National: 12.2%
      Hispanic/Latino7.3%
      National: 19.3%
      Asian2.5%
      National: 6.0%
      College Degree31.8%
      National: 35.6%
      Median Income$75,689
      National: $83,960
      Median Age38.8
      National: 39.1

      Seat History

      US Senate in Iowa(Class I)

      2022
      Chuck GrassleyREP
      R+12.2
      2020
      Joni ErnstREP
      R+6.6
      2016
      Chuck GrassleyREP
      R+24.4
      2014
      Joni ErnstREP
      R+8.3
      2010
      Chuck GrassleyREP
      R+31.1
      2008
      Tom HarkinDEM
      D+25.4
      2004
      Chuck GrassleyREP
      R+42.3
      2002
      Tom HarkinDEM
      D+10.4
      1998
      Chuck GrassleyREP
      R+37.9
      1996
      Tom HarkinDEM
      D+5.1
      1992
      Chuck GrassleyREP
      R+42.4
      1990
      Tom HarkinDEM
      D+9.1
      1986
      Chuck GrassleyREP
      R+32.5
      1984
      Tom HarkinDEM
      D+11.8
      1980
      Chuck GrassleyREP
      R+8.0
      View all US Senate history for Iowa →

      Also in Iowa, 2026

      Governor
      Likely D
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