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Does dominating a primary predict general election success? Each dot represents a contested presidential primary where the X-axis shows the winner's primary vote share and the Y-axis shows the state's general election margin. Positive Y values favor Democrats; negative favor Republicans.
This analysis joins contested presidential primaries (where more than one candidate ran) from mv_primary_field_size with state-level general election margins from mv_two_party_margin. Only primaries with 2+ candidates are included to exclude uncontested nominations.
General election margins follow the standard Akashic convention: (D - R) / total * 100. Positive values indicate a Democratic margin; negative values indicate a Republican margin.
When a primary doesn't produce a majority winner, some states hold a runoff. This tracker shows whether the original frontrunner held on or was upset.