How did PA-02, Pennsylvania vote in the 2024 presidential election?

PA-02, Pennsylvania voted Democratic in 2024 with a margin of D+33.5. The Democratic candidate received 184,030 votes and the Republican candidate received 90,771 out of 278,771 total votes cast, a 7.6-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is PA-02, Pennsylvania's political history?

PA-02, Pennsylvania has 5 presidential elections on record, spanning 2008 to 2024. It has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 2008. The largest single-election swing was 8.9 points in 2012.

What are the demographics of PA-02, Pennsylvania?

PA-02, Pennsylvania has a population of 746,424 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 35.9% non-Hispanic white, 25.9% Hispanic, 24.7% Black. About 28% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $60,334.

Pennsylvania's 2nd Congressional District

Pennsylvania · Latest: 2024↓ R+8.4 vs 2022

Safe Democratic — 25D, 0R in 25 House elections

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POPULATION
746K
HOUSE MARGIN
D+42.9
2024
PRES MARGIN
D+33.5
2024
LEAN
Safe D
COLLEGE+
28%

Place Story

What defines Pennsylvania's 2nd Congressional District

Methodology

Reliably Democratic since 2008
- Safe D
- 5 straight D wins
Mobilization target, not persuasion target.
Ticket-splitting: President ran 32.3pp behind House
- Divergence 32.3pp in 2016
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Demographically distinctive: 36% non-Hispanic white (-22pp vs national)
- 36% non-Hispanic white (-22pp vs national)
Biggest swing: D+8.9 in 2012
- 2008 → 2012

District in State Context

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Precinct Deep Dive

2024 / 2020 precinct vintages

See how each split precinct fragment inside PA-02 voted, swung, and lines up demographically.

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Historian Query

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Explore this district's political evolution with the Historian

“How has Pennsylvania's 2nd Congressional District voted in House elections since 2000?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

PA-02Census ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 35.9%Hispanic 25.9%Black 24.7%Asian 9.9%Multiracial 3.0%Native American 0.7%

Group	PA-02	State	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	35.9%	73.0%	57.4%
▶Hispanic / Latino(19)	25.9%	8.7%	19.3%
▶Black / African American(14)	24.7%	10.6%	12.2%
▶Asian(6)	9.9%	3.8%	6.0%
Multiracial / Other	3.0%	3.6%	4.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10)	1.6%	—	0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1)	0.7%	0.2%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

PA-02 vs Pennsylvania vs National746K residents

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

746K

local

746KState 13.0MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.22%

local

0.22%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

74.4%

local

74.4%State 76.3%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$60,334

local

$60,334State $80,054National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

22.1%

local

22.1%State 11.7%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

28.1%

local

28.1%State 35.2%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

56.5%

local

56.5%State 69.3%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

36.3 yrs

local

36.3 yrsState 41.2 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

16.0%

local

16.0%State 15.2%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

14.7%

local

14.7%State 19.5%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

20.1%

local

20.1%State 7.7%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

35.7%

local

35.7%State 12.4%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

64.3%

local

64.3%State 87.6%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in PA-02

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.

2024 Turnout

50.2%

vs Previous

-3.0pp

Voting-Age Pop

555,578

History

2008–2024

Competitiveness

How competitive is PA-02?

Safe DAvg margin: D+40.9 (last 3 elections)

2008

D+47.0

2012

D+55.9

2016

D+48.1

2020

D+41.0

2024

D+33.5

Elasticity

22.4pp

margin range

Party Flips

last 30 years

5-Elec Avg

D+45.1

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in PA-02 split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (0/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs House	D+33.5	D+42.9	9.5pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 20.2pp

Pennsylvania Comparison Set

Other Pennsylvania Districts

Compare the rest of the delegation at a glance, with each card anchored to the latest House margin on current district pages.

32 sibling districts

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