How did PA-15, Pennsylvania vote in the 2024 presidential election?

PA-15, Pennsylvania voted Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+44.8. The Democratic candidate received 97,553 votes and the Republican candidate received 258,432 out of 358,822 total votes cast, a 1.2-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is PA-15, Pennsylvania's political history?

PA-15, Pennsylvania has 5 presidential elections on record, spanning 2008 to 2024. It has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2008. The largest single-election swing was 15.8 points in 2016.

What are the demographics of PA-15, Pennsylvania?

PA-15, Pennsylvania has a population of 758,565 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 91.0% non-Hispanic white, 2.3% Hispanic, 1.9% Black. About 25% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $65,472.

Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District

Pennsylvania · Latest: 2024↓ R+3.0 vs 2022

Safe Republican — flipped 3 times in 25 elections

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POPULATION
759K
HOUSE MARGIN
R+42.9
2024
PRES MARGIN
R+44.8
2024
LEAN
Safe R
COLLEGE+
25%

Place Story

What defines Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District

Methodology

Reliably Republican since 2008
- Safe R
- 5 straight R wins
Mobilization target, not persuasion target.
Biggest swing: R+15.8 in 2016
- 2012 → 2016
Volatile behavior — treat historical margins with caution.
Demographically distinctive: 91% non-Hispanic white (+34pp vs national)
- 91% non-Hispanic white (+34pp vs national)
- 2% Hispanic (-17pp vs national)
Ticket-splitting: President ran 22.9pp behind House
- Divergence 22.9pp in 2016
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.

District in State Context

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Precinct Deep Dive

2024 / 2020 precinct vintages

See how each split precinct fragment inside PA-15 voted, swung, and lines up demographically.

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Historian Query

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Explore this district's political evolution with the Historian

“How has Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District voted in House elections since 2000?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

PA-15Census ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 91.0%Multiracial 2.9%Hispanic 2.3%Black 1.9%Asian 1.7%

Group	PA-15	State	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	91.0%	73.0%	57.4%
Multiracial / Other	2.9%	3.6%	4.0%
▶Hispanic / Latino(18)	2.3%	8.7%	19.3%
▶Black / African American(11)	1.9%	10.6%	12.2%
▶Asian(6)	1.7%	3.8%	6.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(8)	0.5%	—	0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2)	0.1%	0.2%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

PA-15 vs Pennsylvania vs National759K residents

25% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 8pp below the national average. Places with similar education levels vote R+3 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

759K

local

759KState 13.0MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.23%

local

0.23%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

74.8%

local

74.8%State 76.3%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$65,472

local

$65,472State $80,054National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

13.1%

local

13.1%State 11.7%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

25.3%

local

25.3%State 35.2%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

74.0%

local

74.0%State 69.3%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

42.3 yrs

local

42.3 yrsState 41.2 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

17.5%

local

17.5%State 15.2%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

21.0%

local

21.0%State 19.5%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

2.8%

local

2.8%State 7.7%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

6.1%

local

6.1%State 12.4%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

93.9%

local

93.9%State 87.6%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in PA-15

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.

2024 Turnout

63.2%

vs Previous

+1.2pp

Voting-Age Pop

567,627

History

2008–2024

Competitiveness

How competitive is PA-15?

Safe RAvg margin: R+43.9 (last 3 elections)

2008

R+13.2

2012

R+27.5

2016

R+43.3

2020

R+43.7

2024

R+44.8

Elasticity

31.6pp

margin range

Party Flips

last 30 years

5-Elec Avg

R+34.5

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in PA-15 split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyModerate splitting (55/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs House	R+44.8	R+42.9	1.9pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 9.2pp

Pennsylvania Comparison Set

Other Pennsylvania Districts

Compare the rest of the delegation at a glance, with each card anchored to the latest House margin on current district pages.

32 sibling districts

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