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      Data: MIT Election Lab, VEST, Census Bureau
      Home/Elections/2026/Governor/Florida
      2026 ForecastLean R
      2026·Governor·Florida

      Florida Governor

      Open Seat

      Ron DeSantis (R) retiring

      Race Analysis

      Donalds isn't a great candidate and Democrats have a better candidate for Governor. This is more the race to watch than the U.S. Senate special.

      Updated 2026-02-18

      Candidates & Primaries

      Democratic Candidates

      TBDDDeclared

      Democratic challenger expected

      Republican Candidates

      TBDRLikely

      Donalds likely GOP nominee; DeSantis term-limited

      State Demographics

      Florida vs. National · Pop. 22.4M

      White (non-Hispanic)50.4%
      National: 57.4%
      Black15.1%
      National: 12.2%
      Hispanic/Latino27.4%
      National: 19.3%
      Asian2.9%
      National: 6.0%
      College Degree34.2%
      National: 35.6%
      Median Income$75,325
      National: $83,960
      Median Age43.1
      National: 39.1

      Seat History

      Governor in Florida

      2022
      Ron DesantisREP
      R+19.4
      2018
      Ron DesantisREP
      R+0.4
      2014
      Rick ScottREP
      R+1.1
      2010
      Rick ScottREP
      R+1.1
      2006
      Charlie CristREP
      R+7.1
      2002
      Jeb BushREP
      R+12.8
      1998
      Jeb BushREP
      R+10.6
      1994
      Lawton ChilesDEM
      D+1.5
      1990
      Lawton ChilesDEM
      D+13.0
      1986
      Bob MartinezREP
      R+9.1
      1982
      Bob GrahamDEM
      D+29.4
      1978
      Bob GrahamDEM
      D+11.2
      1974
      Reubin Od AskewDEM
      D+22.4
      1970
      Reubin Od AskewDEM
      D+13.8
      1966
      Claude R. Jr. KirkREP
      R+10.3
      View all Governor history for Florida →

      Also in Florida, 2026

      Senate (Special)
      Likely R      ← 2026 Forecast Overview
      ← 2026 Forecast OverviewFlorida profileAll elections