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      Data: MIT Election Lab, VEST, Census Bureau
      Home/Elections/2026/US Senate/Florida
      2026 ForecastLikely R
      2026·US Senate·Florida
      Special

      Florida US Senate

      Open Seat

      No incumbent

      Senate Class 3

      Race Analysis

      Moody doesn't strike me as an especially good candidate, but good luck getting Dems to commit to such an expensive media market after recent results. Still, if things got truly out of hand, here would be a place it would happen.

      Updated 2026-02-18

      State Demographics

      Florida vs. National · Pop. 22.4M

      White (non-Hispanic)50.4%
      National: 57.4%
      Black15.1%
      National: 12.2%
      Hispanic/Latino27.4%
      National: 19.3%
      Asian2.9%
      National: 6.0%
      College Degree34.2%
      National: 35.6%
      Median Income$75,325
      National: $83,960
      Median Age43.1
      National: 39.1

      Seat History

      US Senate in Florida(Class II)

      2024
      Rick ScottREP
      R+12.8
      2022
      Marco RubioREP
      R+16.4
      2018
      Rick ScottREP
      R+0.1
      2016
      Marco RubioREP
      R+7.7
      2012
      Bill NelsonDEM
      D+13.0
      2010
      Marco RubioREP
      R+28.7
      2006
      Bill NelsonDEM
      D+22.2
      2004
      Mel MartinezREP
      R+1.1
      2000
      Bill NelsonDEM
      D+4.9
      1998
      Bob GrahamDEM
      D+24.9
      1994
      Connie Mack IIIREP
      R+41.0
      1992
      Bob GrahamDEM
      D+30.8
      1988
      Connie Mack IIIREP
      R+0.8
      1986
      Bob GrahamDEM
      D+9.5
      1982
      Lawton ChilesDEM
      D+23.4
      View all US Senate history for Florida →

      Also in Florida, 2026

      Governor
      Lean R
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