How did the Modesto, CA metro area vote in the 2024 presidential election?

The Modesto, CA metro area leaned Republican in 2024 with a margin of R+11.0 percentage points, aggregated across 1 constituent counties.

What is the population of the Modesto, CA metro area?

The Modesto, CA metropolitan statistical area has a population of approximately 553,990 across 1 counties according to Census data.

How many counties are in the Modesto, CA metro area?

The Modesto, CA MSA comprises 1 counties.

Modesto, CA

Latest: 2024↓ R+11.7 vs 2020

Leans Republican — shifted 11.7pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 554K residents — 1 counties

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Race & ancestry

Group	%
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	36.3%
▶Hispanic / Latino(16)	50.0%
▶Black / African American(11)	2.7%
▶Asian(6)	6.1%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11)	1.8%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(4)	1.4%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(6)	0.7%
Multiracial / Other	2.8%

View full demographics →

Religious adherence

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents
Catholic	20.9%	54.2%
Evangelical Protestant	11.3%	29.3%
Other	4.9%	12.6%
LDS (Mormon)	2.2%	5.7%
Mainline Protestant	0.9%	2.3%
Black Protestant	0.5%	1.2%
Orthodox Christian	0.2%	0.5%
Non-religious	61.4%	—

View full religion →

Presidential results

Year	Result
2024	Trump+11.0
2020	Biden+0.8
2016	Clinton+1.8
2012	Obama+2.7
2008	Obama+1.7
2004	Bush+18.3
2000	Bush+8.4
1996	Clinton+1.1
1992	Clinton+4.0

View full election history →

Similarity Explorer

Similar metro areas

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.

8 visible matches

Fresno, CA

Diverse rural democratic

R+6.7

Similarity score97%

Bakersfield-Delano, CA

Diverse rural democratic

R+21.1

Similarity score97%

Visalia, CA

Diverse rural democratic

R+20.9

Similarity score97%

Merced, CA

Diverse rural democratic

R+4.4

Similarity score96%

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA

Diverse rural democratic

R+1.7

Similarity score96%

Stockton-Lodi, CA

Diverse rural democratic

Diverse rural democratic

D+29.9

Similarity score95%

Constituent Geography

Counties in Modesto, CA

2024 presidential results across the counties that make up this geography.

Sort:

County	Pop.	Margin	Dem	Rep	Total
Stanislaus	554K	R+11.0	85,347	106,986	197,472

1 countiesTotal votes: 197,472

Historian Query

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Explore Modesto, CA's political evolution with the Historian

“How has the Modesto, CA metro area voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

Modesto, CACensus ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

Hispanic 50.0%White (Non-Hispanic) 36.3%Asian 6.1%Multiracial 2.8%Black 2.7%Native American 1.4%Native Hawaiian 0.7%

Group	Modesto, CA	National
▶Hispanic / Latino(16)	50.0%	19.3%
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	36.3%	57.4%
▶Asian(6)	6.1%	6.0%
Multiracial / Other	2.8%	4.0%
▶Black / African American(11)	2.7%	12.2%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11)	1.8%	0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(4)	1.4%	0.9%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(6)	0.7%	0.2%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Religious Adherents

Population that are religious adherents:

38.6%(214.1K people)

U.S. Religion Census 2020

Browse all religions

Tradition	% Pop	% Adherents	US Pop	US Adherents
Catholic	20.9%	54.2%	—	—
Evangelical Protestant	11.3%	29.3%	—	—
Other	4.9%	12.6%	—	—
LDS (Mormon)	2.2%	5.7%	—	—
Mainline Protestant	0.9%	2.3%	—	—
Black Protestant	0.5%	1.2%	—	—
Orthodox Christian	0.2%	0.5%	—	—
Non-religiousPopulation	61.4%	—	—	—

Click the chevron to expand denominations. Tradition and denomination rows label both share of total population and share of all religious adherents. Non-religious is shown as a share of total population only.

Who lives in the Modesto, CA metro area? 553,990 residents across 1 counties.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

Modesto, CA vs National554K residents

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

554K

local

554KNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.17%

local

0.17%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

72.3%

local

72.3%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$81,468

local

$81,468National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

13.5%

local

13.5%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

19.6%

local

19.6%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

61.2%

local

61.2%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

34.9 yrs

local

34.9 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

16.3%

local

16.3%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

13.8%

local

13.8%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

21.0%

local

21.0%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

43.0%

local

43.0%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

57.0%

local

57.0%National 77.8%

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