TraditionChristianPUBLISHEDPolitics published

Evangelical Protestant

Concentration, geography, and modeled politics for evangelical protestant across the United States. When politics appears, it describes modeled geographic patterns rather than observed individual voting behavior.

Open in explorer Open JSON Back to atlas

Trust and evidence scope appears before rankingsPopulation + adherent views paired throughoutExplorer and Historian stay subordinate to dossier context

National population share

16.3%

Base benchmark for all geography rankings

National adherent share

33.9%

Adherent benchmark stays separate from population share

Strongest state

Pennsylvania

Population: 9.8%

Adherents: 20.9%

Population x U.S.: 0.60x U.S.

Adherents x U.S.: 0.62x U.S.

Strongest county

Columbia, PA

Population: 10.0%

Adherents: 26.0%

Population x U.S.: 0.61x U.S.

Adherents x U.S.: 0.77x U.S.

Strongest DMA

El Paso (Las Cruces)

Population: 9.8%

Adherents: 17.3%

Population x U.S.: 0.60x U.S.

Adherents x U.S.: 0.51x U.S.

Politics

R+35.5

Latest 2024

Dossier navigation

PUBLISHEDU.S. 16.3%Adherents 33.9%2024 R+35.5

Trust National Workbench Historian States Counties Media markets Full explorer Outliers Politics Peers Method

PUBLISHEDU.S. 16.3%Adherents 33.9%2024 R+35.5

Trust and evidence scope

Release status, source chain, and modeling boundaries

Every dossier declares what is published, where the data comes from, and where modeled geography stops short of observed individual behavior.

Release status

PUBLISHED

Search-indexed public release in the current dossier set.

Political basis

Latest 2024

Latest modeled series: 2024 R+35.5, high.

Source chain

Footprint source: U.S. Religion Census 2020 adherent counts paired with Akashic population baselines.
Politics source: religion_vote_shares_msoa when a stable modeled series is available.
Interpretation: modeled geography where shown, not direct observation of individual behavior.

Open methodology

National benchmark

National footprint

These are the base U.S. measures used for over-indexing and geography rankings across the dossier.

Share of population

16.3%

Population x U.S.: 1.00x U.S.

Share of adherents

33.9%

Adherents x U.S.: 1.00x U.S.

Availability

Nation, state, county, metro, and DMA in v1

Metro and DMA rankings are live. Future tabs stay hidden until dedicated rollups are ready.

Explorer handoff

Open the map-first explorer

The embedded workbench keeps the map, rankings, and dossier context aligned while preserving the same explorer workflow used across place-first analysis.

Where this is strongest

Map the footprint directly inside the dossier.

Use the same layer contract as the main explorer to inspect evangelical protestant across states, counties, metros, and media markets without leaving the dossier.

Open full explorer

Counties

Counties ranked by population share, with modeled political context kept secondary.

0 ranked

Loading explorer layer…

Rankings

Population share

Rank	Place	Value	Pres. context

Selected place

Select a place from the map or rankings table to inspect it.

Historian

Group-context prompts

Use the dossier’s strongest places and modeled geography context as a starting point for a deeper analysis.

Explain the footprint

What best defines the geographic footprint of Evangelical Protestant across states, counties, and media markets?

Find the outliers

Which places most over-index for Evangelical Protestant, and what political patterns stand out in those geographies?

Ranked geography table

Top states

Population-ranked state concentrations for the public dossier view.

10 rows

Geography	% Population	% Adherents	Population x U.S.	Adherents x U.S.
Pennsylvania	9.8%	20.9%	0.60x U.S.	0.62x U.S.
California	9.1%	20.1%	0.55x U.S.	0.59x U.S.
Hawaii	8.9%	22.0%	0.55x U.S.	0.65x U.S.
Delaware	8.8%	22.0%	0.54x U.S.	0.65x U.S.
Vermont	7.2%	19.3%	0.44x U.S.	0.57x U.S.
Connecticut	6.9%	14.6%	0.42x U.S.	0.43x U.S.
Nevada	6.6%	16.3%	0.40x U.S.	0.48x U.S.
Maine	6.0%	19.8%	0.37x U.S.	0.58x U.S.
New York	5.2%	10.1%	0.32x U.S.	0.30x U.S.
New Jersey	5.1%	9.8%	0.31x U.S.	0.29x U.S.

Ranked geography table

Top counties

County concentrations ordered by share of population, with adherent share paired where available.

25 rows

Geography	% Population	% Adherents	Population x U.S.	Adherents x U.S.
Columbia, PA	10.0%	26.0%	0.61x U.S.	0.77x U.S.
Douglas, WA	10.0%	35.2%	0.61x U.S.	1.04x U.S.
Lincoln, SD	9.9%	38.3%	0.61x U.S.	1.13x U.S.
Morrison, MN	9.9%	16.4%	0.61x U.S.	0.48x U.S.
Portage, OH	9.9%	35.1%	0.61x U.S.	1.03x U.S.
Gloucester, NJ	9.9%	16.7%	0.61x U.S.	0.49x U.S.
Cumberland, NJ	9.9%	22.6%	0.61x U.S.	0.67x U.S.
El Paso, TX	9.9%	15.9%	0.61x U.S.	0.47x U.S.
Cape May, NJ	9.9%	15.1%	0.60x U.S.	0.44x U.S.
Scott, IA	9.9%	25.0%	0.60x U.S.	0.74x U.S.
Williams, ND	9.9%	25.9%	0.60x U.S.	0.76x U.S.
Hancock, MS	9.8%	34.0%	0.60x U.S.	1.00x U.S.
Kauai, HI	9.8%	20.9%	0.60x U.S.	0.62x U.S.
Stark, IL	9.8%	30.9%	0.60x U.S.	0.91x U.S.
Crawford, GA	9.8%	55.9%	0.60x U.S.	1.65x U.S.
Braxton, WV	9.8%	22.3%	0.60x U.S.	0.66x U.S.
Jackson, WI	9.8%	28.4%	0.60x U.S.	0.84x U.S.
Dona Ana, NM	9.8%	26.2%	0.60x U.S.	0.77x U.S.
Lucas, IA	9.8%	33.0%	0.60x U.S.	0.97x U.S.
Traill, ND	9.8%	16.7%	0.60x U.S.	0.49x U.S.
Washington, PA	9.8%	23.2%	0.60x U.S.	0.68x U.S.
Edwards, KS	9.8%	17.2%	0.60x U.S.	0.51x U.S.
Isabella, MI	9.8%	30.0%	0.60x U.S.	0.88x U.S.
Columbia, OR	9.8%	40.8%	0.60x U.S.	1.20x U.S.
Okanogan, WA	9.8%	27.9%	0.60x U.S.	0.82x U.S.

Ranked geography table

Top media markets

DMA rankings extend the dossier beyond counties while preserving the same measurement grammar.

15 rows

Geography	% Population	% Adherents	Population x U.S.	Adherents x U.S.
El Paso (Las Cruces)	9.8%	17.3%	0.60x U.S.	0.51x U.S.
Los Angeles	9.7%	19.6%	0.59x U.S.	0.58x U.S.
Davenport-R.Island-Moline	9.6%	24.4%	0.59x U.S.	0.72x U.S.
Pittsburgh	9.6%	18.1%	0.59x U.S.	0.53x U.S.
Madison	9.5%	24.6%	0.58x U.S.	0.73x U.S.
San Diego	9.5%	22.8%	0.58x U.S.	0.67x U.S.
Detroit	9.3%	21.6%	0.57x U.S.	0.64x U.S.
Butte-Bozeman	9.2%	29.1%	0.56x U.S.	0.86x U.S.
Honolulu	8.9%	22.0%	0.55x U.S.	0.65x U.S.
Marquette	8.7%	20.3%	0.54x U.S.	0.60x U.S.
Duluth-Superior	8.7%	23.7%	0.53x U.S.	0.70x U.S.
Cedar Rapids-Wtrlo-IWC&Dub	8.6%	18.6%	0.53x U.S.	0.55x U.S.
Chicago	8.4%	16.0%	0.52x U.S.	0.47x U.S.
Binghamton	8.0%	19.8%	0.49x U.S.	0.58x U.S.
Wilkes Barre-Scranton-Hztn	8.0%	17.5%	0.49x U.S.	0.52x U.S.

Full ranked explorer

Search the entire geography set

Open the full geography table with the same measurement rules and public dossier hierarchy preserved.

Explorer workbench

Rank every geography in the release set

Search, sort, and switch geography tiers without leaving the dossier measurement rules.

10 ranked statesOrdered by population

Geography	% Population	% Adherents	Population x U.S.
Pennsylvania	9.8%	20.9%	0.60x
California	9.1%	20.1%	0.55x
Hawaii	8.9%	22.0%	0.55x
Delaware	8.8%	22.0%	0.54x
Vermont	7.2%	19.3%	0.44x
Connecticut	6.9%	14.6%	0.42x
Nevada	6.6%	16.3%	0.40x
Maine	6.0%	19.8%	0.37x
New York	5.2%	10.1%	0.32x
New Jersey	5.1%	9.8%	0.31x

Full geography explorer

50+ ranked geographies

Unlock searchable state, county, metro, and DMA rankings for this group.

Unlock with Pro$33/mo

Residuals

Over-indexed but politically unusual

High-footprint counties where the 2024 presidential margin diverges most from this group's latest published national modeled pattern.

County	Footprint	2024 actual	Modeled	Residual
Claiborne, MS	8.2%adherents 62.8%	D+67.5	R+35.5	D+103.0
Orleans, LA	8.6%adherents 15.4%	D+67.0	R+35.5	D+102.5
Jefferson, MS	9.5%adherents 25.6%	D+66.3	R+35.5	D+101.8
Greene, AL	9.2%adherents 33.2%	D+55.7	R+35.5	D+91.2
Montgomery, MD	8.7%adherents 16.3%	D+52.8	R+35.5	D+88.3
Tompkins, NY	8.6%adherents 28.7%	D+50.0	R+35.5	D+85.5
Washtenaw, MI	8.1%adherents 25.4%	D+44.4	R+35.5	D+79.9
Santa Clara, CA	8.5%adherents 18.6%	D+40.0	R+35.5	D+75.4
Douglas, KS	8.5%adherents 29.3%	D+37.6	R+35.5	D+73.1
Hancock, GA	8.6%adherents 27.4%	D+35.4	R+35.5	D+70.9
Los Angeles, CA	8.6%adherents 16.9%	D+32.9	R+35.5	D+68.4
New Castle, DE	8.0%adherents 17.0%	D+32.6	R+35.5	D+68.0

County candidates come from the top 250 counties ranked by footprint share inside this dossier.
Actual context is the 2024 presidential margin for each county, computed as (Dem - Rep) / total votes * 100.
Modeled baseline is the latest published religion-model national Democratic margin for this group.
Residual = county actual margin minus the modeled baseline; rows rank by absolute residual with footprint share as the tiebreaker.
This module describes modeled geography versus county election results, not individual behavior.

Modeled politics

Political pattern

Compact public timeline plus a gated full table with method and confidence detail.

2024

R+35.5

HIGH

2020

R+40.0

MEDIUM

2016

R+39.6

LOW

Full politics detail

Unlock the full election-year table, method labels, and model metadata.

Unlock with Pro$33/mo

Related dossiers

Nearby groups

Peer dossiers from the same ancestry family or religion tradition.

Peer comparison

Unlock the peer comparison table for this group family.

Unlock with Pro$33/mo

Method and export

Methodology and exports

Public notes on source tables, measurement scope, modeling boundaries, and exportability.

Religion footprint metrics use U.S. Religion Census 2020 adherent counts and Akashic population baselines.
Each table labels both share of total population and share of religious adherents where both are derivable.
State and national religion summaries aggregate county-level adherent counts instead of interpolating percentages.
Political timelines use the religion MSOA model and suppress entirely when no modeled series exists.

Download dossier set

Every file includes the overview, top geographies, politics panel, related groups, methodology, and provenance chain. Religion exports keep `% of population` and `% of adherents` as separate labeled measures.

JSON

Full structured dossier payload.

CSV

Flat rows for overview, geography, politics, and notes.

XLSX

Workbook with overview, states, counties, politics, and provenance.

PDF

Compact dossier brief for sharing and printing.

Private export response. Cached at the dossier level, never publicly shared through the export endpoint.