TraditionChristianPUBLISHEDPolitics published
Mainline Protestant
Concentration, geography, and modeled politics for mainline protestant across the United States. When politics appears, it describes modeled geographic patterns rather than observed individual voting behavior.
Trust and evidence scope appears before rankingsPopulation + adherent views paired throughoutExplorer and Historian stay subordinate to dossier context
National population share
5.1%
National adherent share
10.7%
Strongest state
Pennsylvania
Population: 9.9%
Adherents: 21.2%
Population x U.S.: 1.93x U.S.
Adherents x U.S.: 1.99x U.S.
Strongest county
Rockbridge, VA
Population: 10.0%
Adherents: 29.4%
Population x U.S.: 1.95x U.S.
Adherents x U.S.: 2.75x U.S.
Strongest DMA
Marquette
Population: 9.8%
Adherents: 22.8%
Population x U.S.: 1.92x U.S.
Adherents x U.S.: 2.14x U.S.
Politics
R+12.6
Dossier navigation
PUBLISHEDU.S. 5.1%Adherents 10.7%2024 R+12.6
PUBLISHEDU.S. 5.1%Adherents 10.7%2024 R+12.6
Trust and evidence scope
Release status, source chain, and modeling boundaries
Every dossier declares what is published, where the data comes from, and where modeled geography stops short of observed individual behavior.
Release status
PUBLISHED
Search-indexed public release in the current dossier set.
Political basis
Latest 2024
Latest modeled series: 2024 R+12.6, high.
Source chain
- Footprint source: U.S. Religion Census 2020 adherent counts paired with Akashic population baselines.
- Politics source: religion_vote_shares_msoa when a stable modeled series is available.
- Interpretation: modeled geography where shown, not direct observation of individual behavior.
National benchmark
National footprint
These are the base U.S. measures used for over-indexing and geography rankings across the dossier.
Share of population
5.1%
Share of adherents
10.7%
Availability
Nation, state, county, metro, and DMA in v1
Explorer handoff
Open the map-first explorer
The embedded workbench keeps the map, rankings, and dossier context aligned while preserving the same explorer workflow used across place-first analysis.
Map the footprint directly inside the dossier.
Use the same layer contract as the main explorer to inspect mainline protestant across states, counties, metros, and media markets without leaving the dossier.
Counties ranked by population share, with modeled political context kept secondary.
Loading explorer layer…
| Rank | Place | Value | Pres. context |
|---|
Select a place from the map or rankings table to inspect it.
Group-context prompts
Use the dossier’s strongest places and modeled geography context as a starting point for a deeper analysis.
Ranked geography table
Top states
Population-ranked state concentrations for the public dossier view.
| Geography | % Population | % Adherents | Population x U.S. | Adherents x U.S. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | 9.9% | 21.2% | 1.93x U.S. | 1.99x U.S. |
| Kansas | 9.6% | 20.9% | 1.87x U.S. | 1.96x U.S. |
| North Carolina | 8.8% | 17.4% | 1.72x U.S. | 1.63x U.S. |
| Wisconsin | 8.4% | 17.6% | 1.64x U.S. | 1.64x U.S. |
| Virginia | 8.0% | 17.6% | 1.56x U.S. | 1.65x U.S. |
| Oklahoma | 7.6% | 12.6% | 1.48x U.S. | 1.18x U.S. |
| South Carolina | 7.2% | 14.1% | 1.40x U.S. | 1.32x U.S. |
| Ohio | 6.8% | 14.3% | 1.33x U.S. | 1.34x U.S. |
| Indiana | 6.8% | 16.2% | 1.32x U.S. | 1.52x U.S. |
| Mississippi | 6.6% | 11.1% | 1.29x U.S. | 1.04x U.S. |
Ranked geography table
Top counties
County concentrations ordered by share of population, with adherent share paired where available.
| Geography | % Population | % Adherents | Population x U.S. | Adherents x U.S. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockbridge, VA | 10.0% | 29.4% | 1.95x U.S. | 2.75x U.S. |
| Shelby, IL | 10.0% | 21.3% | 1.95x U.S. | 2.00x U.S. |
| Hanover, VA | 10.0% | 19.2% | 1.95x U.S. | 1.80x U.S. |
| Union, OH | 10.0% | 32.4% | 1.94x U.S. | 3.03x U.S. |
| Yoakum, TX | 10.0% | 11.1% | 1.94x U.S. | 1.04x U.S. |
| Harrison, IN | 9.9% | 32.3% | 1.94x U.S. | 3.03x U.S. |
| Campbell, VA | 9.9% | 18.7% | 1.94x U.S. | 1.75x U.S. |
| Clay, IN | 9.9% | 31.4% | 1.94x U.S. | 2.95x U.S. |
| Clarke, GA | 9.9% | 23.7% | 1.93x U.S. | 2.22x U.S. |
| Randolph, NC | 9.9% | 21.0% | 1.93x U.S. | 1.96x U.S. |
| Pitt, NC | 9.9% | 26.0% | 1.93x U.S. | 2.44x U.S. |
| Essex, VA | 9.9% | 21.1% | 1.93x U.S. | 1.97x U.S. |
| Knox, MO | 9.9% | 15.2% | 1.93x U.S. | 1.42x U.S. |
| Dewey, SD | 9.9% | 21.9% | 1.92x U.S. | 2.06x U.S. |
| Doddridge, WV | 9.9% | 41.0% | 1.92x U.S. | 3.84x U.S. |
| Dakota, MN | 9.8% | 18.7% | 1.91x U.S. | 1.75x U.S. |
| Pike, IL | 9.8% | 22.8% | 1.91x U.S. | 2.13x U.S. |
| Benton, MN | 9.8% | 18.8% | 1.91x U.S. | 1.76x U.S. |
| Beckham, OK | 9.8% | 14.4% | 1.91x U.S. | 1.35x U.S. |
| Wayne, WV | 9.8% | 35.2% | 1.91x U.S. | 3.30x U.S. |
| Alexander, IL | 9.8% | 22.7% | 1.90x U.S. | 2.12x U.S. |
| Osage, KS | 9.8% | 29.1% | 1.90x U.S. | 2.73x U.S. |
| Wayne, PA | 9.8% | 27.4% | 1.90x U.S. | 2.57x U.S. |
| Bayfield, WI | 9.8% | 26.9% | 1.90x U.S. | 2.52x U.S. |
| Juneau, WI | 9.8% | 26.4% | 1.90x U.S. | 2.48x U.S. |
Ranked geography table
Top media markets
DMA rankings extend the dossier beyond counties while preserving the same measurement grammar.
| Geography | % Population | % Adherents | Population x U.S. | Adherents x U.S. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquette | 9.8% | 22.8% | 1.92x U.S. | 2.14x U.S. |
| North Platte | 9.8% | 34.9% | 1.91x U.S. | 3.27x U.S. |
| Peoria-Bloomington | 9.6% | 22.8% | 1.86x U.S. | 2.14x U.S. |
| Charlotte | 9.5% | 17.4% | 1.85x U.S. | 1.63x U.S. |
| Rapid City | 9.5% | 22.3% | 1.85x U.S. | 2.09x U.S. |
| Omaha | 9.4% | 20.6% | 1.84x U.S. | 1.93x U.S. |
| Charleston-Huntington | 9.2% | 25.6% | 1.79x U.S. | 2.40x U.S. |
| Binghamton | 9.0% | 22.2% | 1.76x U.S. | 2.08x U.S. |
| Richmond-Petersburg | 9.0% | 17.8% | 1.76x U.S. | 1.67x U.S. |
| Meridian | 8.8% | 13.6% | 1.72x U.S. | 1.28x U.S. |
| Columbus-Tupelo-W Pnt-Hstn | 8.6% | 12.8% | 1.67x U.S. | 1.20x U.S. |
| Champaign&Sprngfld-Decatur | 8.4% | 18.9% | 1.64x U.S. | 1.78x U.S. |
| Rockford | 8.3% | 15.1% | 1.61x U.S. | 1.42x U.S. |
| Utica | 8.3% | 17.9% | 1.61x U.S. | 1.68x U.S. |
| Terre Haute | 8.3% | 20.7% | 1.61x U.S. | 1.94x U.S. |
Full ranked explorer
Search the entire geography set
Open the full geography table with the same measurement rules and public dossier hierarchy preserved.
Full geography explorer
50+ ranked geographies
Unlock searchable state, county, metro, and DMA rankings for this group.
Unlock with Pro$33/moResiduals
Over-indexed but politically unusual
High-footprint counties where the 2024 presidential margin diverges most from this group's latest published national modeled pattern.
| County | Footprint | 2024 actual | Modeled | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motley, TX | 9.5%adherents 14.8% | R+88.8 | R+12.6 | R+76.2 |
| Shackelford, TX | 9.4%adherents 16.1% | R+82.1 | R+12.6 | R+69.5 |
| Carson, TX | 8.5%adherents 14.9% | R+81.1 | R+12.6 | R+68.5 |
| Carter, MT | 9.3%adherents 19.6% | R+80.2 | R+12.6 | R+67.6 |
| Dukes, MA | 8.6%adherents 34.2% | D+52.4 | R+12.6 | D+64.9 |
| Gove, KS | 9.3%adherents 14.8% | R+77.0 | R+12.6 | R+64.5 |
| Cherry, NE | 9.7%adherents 20.0% | R+76.2 | R+12.6 | R+63.6 |
| Childress, TX | 8.5%adherents 18.4% | R+76.1 | R+12.6 | R+63.5 |
| Stevens, KS | 9.2%adherents 17.6% | R+75.5 | R+12.6 | R+62.9 |
| Powder River, MT | 8.4%adherents 40.6% | R+75.2 | R+12.6 | R+62.6 |
| Morton, KS | 9.4%adherents 21.0% | R+73.4 | R+12.6 | R+60.8 |
| Doddridge, WV | 9.9%adherents 41.0% | R+73.3 | R+12.6 | R+60.7 |
- County candidates come from the top 250 counties ranked by footprint share inside this dossier.
- Actual context is the 2024 presidential margin for each county, computed as (Dem - Rep) / total votes * 100.
- Modeled baseline is the latest published religion-model national Democratic margin for this group.
- Residual = county actual margin minus the modeled baseline; rows rank by absolute residual with footprint share as the tiebreaker.
- This module describes modeled geography versus county election results, not individual behavior.
Modeled politics
Political pattern
Compact public timeline plus a gated full table with method and confidence detail.
2024
R+12.6
HIGH
2020
R+8.9
MEDIUM
2016
R+7.1
LOW
Full politics detail
Unlock the full election-year table, method labels, and model metadata.
Unlock with Pro$33/moMethod and export
Methodology and exports
Public notes on source tables, measurement scope, modeling boundaries, and exportability.
- Religion footprint metrics use U.S. Religion Census 2020 adherent counts and Akashic population baselines.
- Each table labels both share of total population and share of religious adherents where both are derivable.
- State and national religion summaries aggregate county-level adherent counts instead of interpolating percentages.
- Political timelines use the religion MSOA model and suppress entirely when no modeled series exists.