Toole County, Montana: Northern Rural Secular

Montana · Presidential Elections 1916–2024

R+56.5

2024 Margin

R+3.2%

2020→2024 Swing

R since 1968

Voting Streak

Population

Toole County, Montana voted R+56.5 for Donald Trump in 2024, with Trump receiving 1,571 votes (76.78%). This represented a R+3.2% swing toward Republicans compared to 2020. The county has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1968.

Quick Stats

2024 ResultR+56.5

2020→2024 SwingR+3.2%

Voting StreakR since 1968

Elections on Record28

Demographics

Population4,971

Median Age

40.4(US: 38.4)

College (BA+)

21.5%(US: 34.6%)

Median Income

$54,040(US: $78k)

White (non-Hisp)

83.0%(US: 57.5%)

Hispanic

4.3%(US: 18.6%)

Homeownership

64.6%(US: 64.2%)

Poverty Rate

12.3%(US: 12.4%)

Veterans

12.8%(US: 6.4%)

Non-English (CVAP)

6.1%(US: 17.1%)

Community Profile

Religious Composition

Source: Religion Census 2020

Mainline Protestant

22.7%(+17.5 vs US)

Evangelical

14.2%(-2.3 vs US)

Catholic

5.9%(-12.8 vs US)

LDS/Mormon

4.2%(+2.2 vs US)

Age Distribution

Median:40.4 yrs(US: 38.5)

Under 18

20.2%

18-29

7.6%↓

30-44

22.5%↑

45-64

32.2%↑

65+

17.4%

National average

Employment by Industry

Source: Census ACS

AgricultureVery high

13.2%

EducationAbove avg

12.1%

Retail Trade

11.3%

Professional ServicesBelow avg

7.4%

ConstructionBelow avg

4.3%

HealthcareVery low

3.6%

Political relevance:

Agriculture: Farm bill, rural RHealthcare: ACA debatesManufacturing: Trade policy sensitive

+ 1 more industries

Presidential Elections

Presidential Results

Year	Democrat	Republican	Margin	Swing
2024	20.3%(415)	76.8%(1,571)	R+56.5	R+3.2
2020	22.0%(467)	75.3%(1,596)	R+53.3	D+0.5
2016	19.7%(402)	73.5%(1,497)	R+53.8	R+12.9
2012	27.7%(582)	68.5%(1,440)	R+40.8	R+13.5
2008	34.8%(737)	62.1%(1,317)	R+27.4	D+11.3
2004	29.9%(690)	68.5%(1,583)	R+38.6	D+3.8
2000	26.5%(630)	68.9%(1,639)	R+42.4	R+29.2
1996	35.2%(874)	48.5%(1,203)	R+13.3	R+10.0
1992	31.4%(854)	34.7%(943)	R+3.3	D+13.2
1988	40.6%(1,070)	57.1%(1,505)	R+16.5	D+25.4

Source: Official state election returns via MIT Election Data + Science Lab

Senate Elections

Senate Results

Year	Democrat	Republican	Margin	Swing
2024	28.0%(558)	72.0%(1,436)	R+44.0	R+0.1
2020	28.0%(595)	72.0%(1,528)	R+44.0	R+12.2
2018	34.1%(626)	65.9%(1,208)	R+31.7	D+15.0
2014	26.6%(433)	73.4%(1,193)	R+46.7	R+21.5
2012	37.4%(721)	62.6%(1,209)	R+25.3	R+62.6
2008	68.7%(1,443)	31.3%(658)	D+37.4	D+59.7
2006	38.8%(759)	61.2%(1,195)	R+22.3	R+57.0
2002	67.3%(1,225)	32.7%(594)	D+34.7	D+48.2
2000	43.2%(992)	56.8%(1,302)	R+13.5	R+3.4
1996	44.9%(1,053)	55.1%(1,291)	R+10.2	D+32.1

Source: Official state election returns via MIT Election Data + Science Lab

Governor Elections

Governor Results

Year	Democrat	Republican	Margin	Swing
2024	17.9%(355)	82.1%(1,632)	R+64.3	R+10.7
2020	23.2%(468)	76.8%(1,546)	R+53.5	R+32.9
2016	39.7%(799)	60.3%(1,214)	R+20.6	D+2.6
2012	38.4%(776)	61.6%(1,244)	R+23.2	R+38.7
2008	57.8%(1,203)	42.2%(879)	D+15.6	D+19.1
2004	48.2%(1,055)	51.8%(1,133)	R+3.6	D+5.4
2000	45.5%(1,071)	54.5%(1,283)	R+9.0	D+56.3
1996	17.4%(429)	82.7%(2,044)	R+65.3	R+51.3
1992	43.0%(1,160)	57.0%(1,539)	R+14.0	D+1.7
1988	42.1%(1,096)	57.9%(1,504)	R+15.7	R+43.5

Source: Official state election returns via MIT Election Data + Science Lab

Primary Election History

Primary Results

Year	Party	Winner	Runner-up	Nominee?
2024	GOP	Donald Trump(91.6%)	Other(8.4%)	✓
2020	Dem	Joe Biden(77.1%)	Bernie Sanders(12.5%)	✓
2016	Dem	Hillary Clinton(52.4%)	Bernie Sanders(43.5%)	✓
2016	GOP	Donald Trump(77.7%)	Ted Cruz(7.1%)	✓
2008	Dem	Hillary Clinton(52.2%)	Barack Obama(44.8%)	✗