Biggest Shifts2020 → 2024
Which Communities Shifted the Most?
Southeast Fairbanks Census Area, Alaska, AK swung 36.3 points toward Republicans—the biggest shift in the nation.
Trump made major inroads in communities with bloc voting patterns—particularly areas with higher shares of non-English speakers where he invested heavily in outreach. Harris gained in places attracting liberal migration: Atlanta suburbs, Asheville, mid-size Pacific Northwest cities like Bend, and a few small conservative communities that may have maxed out on the GOP.
Between 2020 and 2024, most U.S. counties shifted toward Republicans. The biggest GOP swings came from communities with bloc voting patterns—South Texas border counties, Orthodox Jewish enclaves, and other tight-knit groups Trump actively courted. Democratic gains were smaller and concentrated in areas experiencing liberal in-migration: Atlanta's exurbs, Asheville, mountain towns in the Pacific Northwest, and some deeply red rural counties that may have hit a GOP ceiling.
Sorted by percentage point swing
Biggest Swings Toward Republicans
| # | County | Swing | 2020 | 2024 | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southeast Fairbanks Census Area, AlaskaAK* | R+36.3% | R+26.9 | R+63.2 | 3,634 |
| 2 | Lake and Peninsula Borough, AlaskaAK* | R+30.7% | D+18.5 | R+12.3 | 449 |
| 3 | Maverick County, TexasTX | R+27.9% | D+9.5 | R+18.5 | 15,745 |
| 4 | Webb County, TexasTX | R+25.4% | D+23.3 | R+2.2 | 65,937 |
| 5 | Imperial County, CaliforniaCA | R+25.2% | D+24.4 | R+0.9 | 54,025 |
| 6 | Hoonah-Angoon Census Area, AlaskaAK* | R+24.1% | D+46.0 | D+21.9 | 1,769 |
| 7 | Bronx County, New YorkNY | R+22.6% | D+67.5 | D+44.9 | 364,061 |
| 8 | Queens County, New YorkNY | R+21.1% | D+45.2 | D+24.1 | 715,964 |
| 9 | Starr County, TexasTX | R+21.0% | D+5.0 | R+16.0 | 16,431 |
| 10 | Dimmit County, TexasTX | R+20.7% | D+24.0 | D+3.3 | 3,427 |
| 11 | El Paso County, TexasTX | R+20.0% | D+35.1 | D+15.1 | 252,005 |
| 12 | Hidalgo County, TexasTX | R+19.9% | D+17.1 | R+2.9 | 217,265 |
| 13 | Northwest Arctic Borough, AlaskaAK* | R+19.7% | D+15.3 | R+4.4 | 1,536 |
| 14 | Culberson County, TexasTX | R+19.6% | D+2.7 | R+16.9 | 781 |
| 15 | Passaic County, New JerseyNJ | R+19.5% | D+16.7 | R+2.9 | 203,351 |
| 16 | Cameron County, TexasTX | R+18.9% | D+13.2 | R+5.8 | 116,309 |
| 17 | Miami-Dade County, FloridaFL | R+18.8% | D+7.3 | R+11.4 | 1,097,209 |
| 18 | Hudson County, New JerseyNJ | R+18.7% | D+46.6 | D+27.9 | 232,232 |
| 19 | Zapata County, TexasTX | R+17.1% | R+5.3 | R+22.4 | 4,871 |
| 20 | Kusilvak Census Area, AlaskaAK* | R+17.0% | D+33.6 | D+16.6 | 1,567 |
| 21 | Zavala County, TexasTX | R+17.0% | D+31.4 | D+14.4 | 3,492 |
| 22 | Frio County, TexasTX | R+16.9% | R+7.6 | R+24.5 | 4,939 |
| 23 | Santa Cruz County, ArizonaAZ | R+16.9% | D+35.5 | D+18.6 | 19,167 |
| 24 | Val Verde County, TexasTX | R+16.6% | R+9.9 | R+26.6 | 14,612 |
| 25 | Bethel Census Area, AlaskaAK* | R+15.6% | D+28.0 | D+12.4 | 4,331 |
| 26 | Osceola County, FloridaFL | R+15.3% | D+13.8 | R+1.4 | 173,289 |
| 27 | Hendry County, FloridaFL | R+15.2% | R+23.0 | R+38.2 | 13,487 |
| 28 | Willacy County, TexasTX | R+15.2% | D+11.9 | R+3.3 | 5,563 |
| 29 | Sutter County, CaliforniaCA | R+15.0% | R+16.4 | R+31.4 | 39,339 |
| 30 | Merced County, CaliforniaCA | R+14.9% | D+10.5 | R+4.3 | 86,684 |
| 31 | Kenedy County, TexasTX | R+14.9% | R+32.0 | R+46.8 | 158 |
| 32 | Haines Borough, AlaskaAK* | R+14.9% | D+23.8 | D+8.9 | 1,919 |
| 33 | San Joaquin County, CaliforniaCA | R+14.7% | D+13.8 | R+0.9 | 264,916 |
| 34 | Apache County, ArizonaAZ | R+14.7% | D+33.6 | D+18.9 | 32,096 |
| 35 | Richmond County, New YorkNY | R+14.4% | R+14.9 | R+29.3 | 200,558 |
| 36 | Yuma County, ArizonaAZ | R+14.2% | R+6.2 | R+20.4 | 68,195 |
| 37 | Middlesex County, New JerseyNJ | R+14.2% | D+22.2 | D+8.0 | 366,639 |
| 38 | Rio Arriba County, New MexicoNM | R+14.2% | D+33.6 | D+19.4 | 15,989 |
| 39 | Mora County, New MexicoNM | R+14.1% | D+31.4 | D+17.3 | 2,487 |
| 40 | McKinley County, New MexicoNM | R+14.1% | D+38.6 | D+24.5 | 25,867 |
| 41 | Dillingham Census Area, AlaskaAK* | R+13.8% | D+7.5 | R+6.3 | 1,519 |
| 42 | Guadalupe County, New MexicoNM | R+13.8% | D+14.5 | D+0.7 | 1,938 |
| 43 | Nassau County, New YorkNY | R+13.7% | D+9.6 | R+4.2 | 715,715 |
| 44 | Reeves County, TexasTX | R+13.7% | R+23.3 | R+36.9 | 3,439 |
| 45 | Rockland County, New YorkNY | R+13.4% | D+1.7 | R+11.7 | 150,825 |
| 46 | Manassas Park city, VirginiaVA | R+13.2% | D+33.1 | D+19.9 | 5,997 |
| 47 | Bergen County, New JerseyNJ | R+13.2% | D+16.5 | D+3.4 | 460,685 |
| 48 | Uvalde County, TexasTX | R+13.1% | R+20.3 | R+33.4 | 9,772 |
| 49 | Tulare County, CaliforniaCA | R+12.9% | R+7.8 | R+20.7 | 138,309 |
| 50 | Broward County, FloridaFL | R+12.9% | D+29.8 | D+16.9 | 877,262 |
Biggest Swings Toward Democrats
| # | County | Swing | 2020 | 2024 | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juneau City and Borough, AlaskaAK* | D+14.9% | D+10.7 | D+25.6 | 17,004 |
| 2 | Henry County, GeorgiaGA | D+9.1% | D+20.4 | D+29.5 | 129,774 |
| 3 | San Juan County, ColoradoCO | D+7.0% | D+24.9 | D+31.9 | 589 |
| 4 | Chaffee County, ColoradoCO | D+6.7% | D+6.8 | D+13.6 | 14,423 |
| 5 | Loving County, TexasTX | D+6.5% | R+84.8 | R+78.3 | 97 |
| 6 | Rockdale County, GeorgiaGA | D+6.4% | D+40.8 | D+47.2 | 45,471 |
| 7 | Denali Borough, AlaskaAK* | D+6.3% | R+28.6 | R+22.3 | 1,267 |
| 8 | Douglas County, GeorgiaGA | D+6.1% | D+25.1 | D+31.3 | 71,153 |
| 9 | Kaufman County, TexasTX | D+6.0% | R+33.8 | R+27.8 | 69,538 |
| 10 | Ketchikan Gateway Borough, AlaskaAK* | D+5.7% | R+24.8 | R+19.1 | 6,502 |
| 11 | Hyde County, South DakotaSD | D+5.3% | R+60.3 | R+55.0 | 695 |
| 12 | Paulding County, GeorgiaGA | D+5.0% | R+29.1 | R+24.0 | 95,524 |
| 13 | Ellis County, OklahomaOK | D+4.9% | R+81.5 | R+76.6 | 1,812 |
| 14 | Prince of Wales-Hyder Census Area, AlaskaAK* | D+4.8% | R+13.1 | R+8.3 | 3,114 |
| 15 | Oliver County, North DakotaND | D+4.7% | R+74.0 | R+69.3 | 1,087 |
| 16 | Island County, WashingtonWA | D+4.5% | D+12.0 | D+16.4 | 52,449 |
| 17 | Clallam County, WashingtonWA | D+4.5% | D+3.4 | D+7.8 | 48,663 |
| 18 | Blaine County, NebraskaNE | D+4.3% | R+77.3 | R+73.0 | 292 |
| 19 | Billings County, North DakotaND | D+4.3% | R+73.9 | R+69.5 | 647 |
| 20 | Henderson County, North CarolinaNC | D+4.3% | R+18.8 | R+14.5 | 69,974 |
| 21 | Spalding County, GeorgiaGA | D+4.3% | R+20.8 | R+16.6 | 33,208 |
| 22 | Wheeler County, OregonOR | D+4.2% | R+51.2 | R+47.0 | 868 |
| 23 | Newton County, GeorgiaGA | D+4.1% | D+10.9 | D+15.0 | 59,477 |
| 24 | Rio Blanco County, ColoradoCO | D+4.0% | R+67.7 | R+63.7 | 3,692 |
| 25 | Union County, New MexicoNM | D+4.0% | R+56.2 | R+52.2 | 1,665 |
| 26 | Hancock County, IndianaIN | D+3.9% | R+37.5 | R+33.6 | 44,584 |
| 27 | Montrose County, ColoradoCO | D+3.9% | R+36.5 | R+32.6 | 25,626 |
| 28 | Kidder County, North DakotaND | D+3.8% | R+68.1 | R+64.3 | 1,398 |
| 29 | Mesa County, ColoradoCO | D+3.7% | R+28.0 | R+24.3 | 91,620 |
| 30 | Fayette County, GeorgiaGA | D+3.6% | R+6.8 | R+3.1 | 74,956 |
| 31 | Jefferson County, WashingtonWA | D+3.6% | D+41.4 | D+45.1 | 24,698 |
| 32 | Clear Creek County, ColoradoCO | D+3.6% | D+13.0 | D+16.6 | 6,102 |
| 33 | Buncombe County, North CarolinaNC | D+3.6% | D+21.1 | D+24.7 | 160,510 |
| 34 | Rockingham County, VirginiaVA | D+3.6% | R+40.4 | R+36.8 | 48,853 |
| 35 | Anchorage Municipality, AlaskaAK* | D+3.6% | R+2.2 | D+1.4 | 132,898 |
| 36 | Los Alamos County, New MexicoNM | D+3.5% | D+26.6 | D+30.2 | 12,187 |
| 37 | Transylvania County, North CarolinaNC | D+3.5% | R+15.6 | R+12.1 | 20,780 |
| 38 | Wallace County, KansasKS | D+3.5% | R+88.0 | R+84.5 | 750 |
| 39 | Walton County, GeorgiaGA | D+3.4% | R+49.2 | R+45.8 | 58,494 |
| 40 | Gilpin County, ColoradoCO | D+3.4% | D+9.3 | D+12.7 | 4,130 |
| 41 | Staunton city, VirginiaVA | D+3.4% | D+9.9 | D+13.3 | 13,626 |
| 42 | Williamsburg city, VirginiaVA | D+3.2% | D+41.1 | D+44.3 | 7,894 |
| 43 | Hinsdale County, ColoradoCO | D+3.1% | R+15.5 | R+12.4 | 607 |
| 44 | Jackson County, GeorgiaGA | D+3.1% | R+58.0 | R+54.9 | 47,375 |
| 45 | Ellis County, TexasTX | D+3.0% | R+34.0 | R+31.0 | 99,818 |
| 46 | Sheridan County, NebraskaNE | D+3.0% | R+72.7 | R+69.7 | 2,497 |
| 47 | Grant County, OklahomaOK | D+3.0% | R+73.5 | R+70.5 | 2,125 |
| 48 | New Kent County, VirginiaVA | D+2.9% | R+34.6 | R+31.7 | 16,807 |
| 49 | Canadian County, OklahomaOK | D+2.9% | R+43.3 | R+40.4 | 73,074 |
| 50 | Dickens County, TexasTX | D+2.9% | R+73.2 | R+70.3 | 993 |
* Alaska estimates: Alaska does not report results by borough. County-level figures are estimates calculated by allocating district-level absentee and early votes to boroughs proportionally based on Election Day precinct results. Haines and Lake & Peninsula Boroughs showed significant R-shifts—the latter is home to Yup'ik Native Alaskans with Russian Orthodox heritage.