Electoral AnalysisSince 1980

Who Always Picks the Winner?

0 counties have voted for the winning presidential candidate in every election since 1980.

These bellwether counties are the nation's political barometers—places where local sentiment has perfectly tracked national outcomes for over four decades.

A bellwether county is a county that has voted for the winner of the presidential election consistently over time. As of 2024, there are 0 counties that have voted for the winning presidential candidate in every election since 1980.

0
Perfect Record
28
90%+ Accuracy
97
80%+ Accuracy
12
Elections Tracked

Near-Perfect Bellwethers

Counties with 90%+ accuracy in predicting winners

Blaine County, Montana

Montana

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 9
Pop: 7,044
Missed: 1988

Pinellas County, Florida

Florida

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 6
Pop: 959,107
Missed: 2000

Nicollet County, Minnesota

Minnesota

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 5
Pop: 34,454
Missed: 2004

Sullivan County, New Hampshire

New Hampshire

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 5
Pop: 43,063
Missed: 2004

Albany County, Wyoming

Wyoming

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 3
Pop: 37,066
Missed: 2012

Merced County, California

California

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 2
Pop: 281,202
Missed: 2016

San Bernardino County, California

California

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 2
Pop: 2,181,654
Missed: 2016

San Joaquin County, California

California

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 2
Pop: 779,233
Missed: 2016

Stanislaus County, California

California

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 2
Pop: 552,878
Missed: 2016

Warren County, Illinois

Illinois

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 16,835
Missed: 2020

Vigo County, Indiana

Indiana

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 106,153
Missed: 2020

Bremer County, Iowa

Iowa

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 24,988
Missed: 2020

Washington County, Maine

Maine

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 31,095
Missed: 2020

Shiawassee County, Michigan

Michigan

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 68,094
Missed: 2020

Van Buren County, Michigan

Michigan

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 75,587
Missed: 2020

Hidalgo County, New Mexico

New Mexico

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 4,178
Missed: 2020

Valencia County, New Mexico

New Mexico

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 76,205
Missed: 2020

Cortland County, New York

New York

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 46,809
Missed: 2020

Otsego County, New York

New York

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 58,524
Missed: 2020

Ottawa County, Ohio

Ohio

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 40,364
Missed: 2020

Wood County, Ohio

Ohio

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 132,248
Missed: 2020

Essex County, Vermont

Vermont

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 5,920
Missed: 2020

Westmoreland County, Virginia

Virginia

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 18,477
Missed: 2020

Juneau County, Wisconsin

Wisconsin

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 26,718
Missed: 2020

Marquette County, Wisconsin

Wisconsin

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 15,592
Missed: 2020

Richland County, Wisconsin

Wisconsin

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 17,304
Missed: 2020

Sawyer County, Wisconsin

Wisconsin

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 18,074
Missed: 2020

Clallam County, Washington

Washington

92%
accuracy
Record: 11/12
Streak: 0
Pop: 77,155
Missed: 2024

Notable Bellwethers

Counties with 80-90% accuracy in predicting winners

Kennebec County, Maine

Maine

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 5
Pop: 123,642
Missed: 2004, 2000

Blue Earth County, Minnesota

Minnesota

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 5
Pop: 69,112
Missed: 2004, 1988

Winona County, Minnesota

Minnesota

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 5
Pop: 49,671
Missed: 2004, 2000

Gloucester County, New Jersey

New Jersey

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 5
Pop: 302,294
Missed: 2004, 2000

Northampton County, Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 5
Pop: 312,951
Missed: 2004, 2000

Sauk County, Wisconsin

Wisconsin

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 5
Pop: 65,763
Missed: 2004, 2000

Butte County, California

California

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 3
Pop: 211,632
Missed: 2012, 1996

Rockingham County, New Hampshire

New Hampshire

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 3
Pop: 314,176
Missed: 2012, 1992

Marion County, Oregon

Oregon

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 3
Pop: 345,920
Missed: 2012, 1992

Fresno County, California

California

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 2
Pop: 1,008,654
Missed: 2016, 1996

Riverside County, California

California

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 2
Pop: 2,418,185
Missed: 2016, 1996

Hillsborough County, Florida

Florida

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 2
Pop: 1,459,762
Missed: 2016, 1992

Baldwin County, Georgia

Georgia

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 2
Pop: 43,799
Missed: 2016, 1980

Latah County, Idaho

Idaho

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 2
Pop: 39,517
Missed: 2016, 1988

Pike County, Mississippi

Mississippi

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 2
Pop: 40,324
Missed: 2016, 1980

Rockland County, New York

New York

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 2
Pop: 338,329
Missed: 2016, 2000

Orleans County, Vermont

Vermont

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 2
Pop: 27,393
Missed: 2016, 2004

Alamosa County, Colorado

Colorado

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 16,376
Missed: 2020, 2016

Bureau County, Illinois

Illinois

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 33,244
Missed: 2020, 2012

Coles County, Illinois

Illinois

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 46,863
Missed: 2020, 2012

Jo Daviess County, Illinois

Illinois

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 22,035
Missed: 2020, 1992

Kankakee County, Illinois

Illinois

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 107,502
Missed: 2020, 2012

McDonough County, Illinois

Illinois

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 27,238
Missed: 2020, 2012

Mason County, Illinois

Illinois

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 13,086
Missed: 2020, 2012

Schuyler County, Illinois

Illinois

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 6,902
Missed: 2020, 2012

Delaware County, Indiana

Indiana

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 111,903
Missed: 2020, 1992

Porter County, Indiana

Indiana

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 173,215
Missed: 2020, 1992

Spencer County, Indiana

Indiana

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 19,810
Missed: 2020, 2012

Starke County, Indiana

Indiana

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 23,371
Missed: 2020, 2012

Vanderburgh County, Indiana

Indiana

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 180,136
Missed: 2020, 2012

Allamakee County, Iowa

Iowa

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 14,061
Missed: 2020, 1992

Jefferson County, Iowa

Iowa

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 15,663
Missed: 2020, 2004

Marshall County, Iowa

Iowa

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 40,105
Missed: 2020, 1988

Union County, Iowa

Iowa

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 12,138
Missed: 2020, 1988

Penobscot County, Maine

Maine

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 152,199
Missed: 2020, 2004

Benzie County, Michigan

Michigan

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 17,970
Missed: 2020, 2012

Calhoun County, Michigan

Michigan

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 134,310
Missed: 2020, 2000

Cass County, Michigan

Michigan

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 51,589
Missed: 2020, 2012

Gladwin County, Michigan

Michigan

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 25,386
Missed: 2020, 2012

Lenawee County, Michigan

Michigan

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 99,423
Missed: 2020, 2012

Manistee County, Michigan

Michigan

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 25,032
Missed: 2020, 2000

Menominee County, Michigan

Michigan

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 23,502
Missed: 2020, 2012

Monroe County, Michigan

Michigan

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 154,809
Missed: 2020, 2000

Presque Isle County, Michigan

Michigan

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 12,982
Missed: 2020, 2012

Houston County, Minnesota

Minnesota

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 18,843
Missed: 2020, 1992

Traverse County, Minnesota

Minnesota

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 3,360
Missed: 2020, 1988

Watonwan County, Minnesota

Minnesota

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 11,253
Missed: 2020, 2012

Chickasaw County, Mississippi

Mississippi

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 17,106
Missed: 2020, 1980

Cascade County, Montana

Montana

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 84,414
Missed: 2020, 2012

Hill County, Montana

Montana

83%
accuracy
Record: 10/12
Streak: 1
Pop: 16,309
Missed: 2020, 1988

What Makes a Bellwether County?

Bellwether counties are often demographically representative of the broader nation, featuring a mix of urban and rural areas, diverse economies, and balanced partisan makeup. They tend to be swing counties where elections are closely contested.

However, it's important to note that past performance doesn't guarantee future predictive power. Many formerly reliable bellwethers have broken their streaks in recent elections as political realignments have reshaped the electoral map.

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