Who Always Picks the Winner?
0 counties have voted for the winning presidential candidate in every election since 1980.
These bellwether counties are the nation's political barometers—places where local sentiment has perfectly tracked national outcomes for over four decades.
A bellwether county is a county that has voted for the winner of the presidential election consistently over time. As of 2024, there are 0 counties that have voted for the winning presidential candidate in every election since 1980.
Near-Perfect Bellwethers
Counties with 90%+ accuracy in predicting winners
Blaine County, Montana
Montana
Pinellas County, Florida
Florida
Nicollet County, Minnesota
Minnesota
Sullivan County, New Hampshire
New Hampshire
Albany County, Wyoming
Wyoming
Merced County, California
California
San Bernardino County, California
California
San Joaquin County, California
California
Stanislaus County, California
California
Warren County, Illinois
Illinois
Vigo County, Indiana
Indiana
Bremer County, Iowa
Iowa
Washington County, Maine
Maine
Shiawassee County, Michigan
Michigan
Van Buren County, Michigan
Michigan
Hidalgo County, New Mexico
New Mexico
Valencia County, New Mexico
New Mexico
Cortland County, New York
New York
Otsego County, New York
New York
Ottawa County, Ohio
Ohio
Wood County, Ohio
Ohio
Essex County, Vermont
Vermont
Westmoreland County, Virginia
Virginia
Juneau County, Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Marquette County, Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Richland County, Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Sawyer County, Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Clallam County, Washington
Washington
Notable Bellwethers
Counties with 80-90% accuracy in predicting winners
Kennebec County, Maine
Maine
Blue Earth County, Minnesota
Minnesota
Winona County, Minnesota
Minnesota
Gloucester County, New Jersey
New Jersey
Northampton County, Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania
Sauk County, Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Butte County, California
California
Rockingham County, New Hampshire
New Hampshire
Marion County, Oregon
Oregon
Fresno County, California
California
Riverside County, California
California
Hillsborough County, Florida
Florida
Baldwin County, Georgia
Georgia
Latah County, Idaho
Idaho
Pike County, Mississippi
Mississippi
Rockland County, New York
New York
Orleans County, Vermont
Vermont
Alamosa County, Colorado
Colorado
Bureau County, Illinois
Illinois
Coles County, Illinois
Illinois
Jo Daviess County, Illinois
Illinois
Kankakee County, Illinois
Illinois
McDonough County, Illinois
Illinois
Mason County, Illinois
Illinois
Schuyler County, Illinois
Illinois
Delaware County, Indiana
Indiana
Porter County, Indiana
Indiana
Spencer County, Indiana
Indiana
Starke County, Indiana
Indiana
Vanderburgh County, Indiana
Indiana
Allamakee County, Iowa
Iowa
Jefferson County, Iowa
Iowa
Marshall County, Iowa
Iowa
Union County, Iowa
Iowa
Penobscot County, Maine
Maine
Benzie County, Michigan
Michigan
Calhoun County, Michigan
Michigan
Cass County, Michigan
Michigan
Gladwin County, Michigan
Michigan
Lenawee County, Michigan
Michigan
Manistee County, Michigan
Michigan
Menominee County, Michigan
Michigan
Monroe County, Michigan
Michigan
Presque Isle County, Michigan
Michigan
Houston County, Minnesota
Minnesota
Traverse County, Minnesota
Minnesota
Watonwan County, Minnesota
Minnesota
Chickasaw County, Mississippi
Mississippi
Cascade County, Montana
Montana
Hill County, Montana
Montana
What Makes a Bellwether County?
Bellwether counties are often demographically representative of the broader nation, featuring a mix of urban and rural areas, diverse economies, and balanced partisan makeup. They tend to be swing counties where elections are closely contested.
However, it's important to note that past performance doesn't guarantee future predictive power. Many formerly reliable bellwethers have broken their streaks in recent elections as political realignments have reshaped the electoral map.