Arlington County, Virginia: Professional Migration
Virginia · Presidential Elections 1892–2024
D+58.1
2024 Margin
R+5.5%
2020→2024 Swing
D since 1984
Voting Streak
🏘️ Prof. Migration
Classification
239K
Population
Arlington County, Virginia voted D+58.1 for Kamala Harris in 2024, with Harris receiving 100,446 votes (77.53%). This represented a R+5.5% swing toward Republicans compared to 2020. The county has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1984.
Electoral Behavior
🏘️
Professional MigrationView all
Growing metro exurbs and suburbs receiving educated professionals from cities. These areas are shifting blue as remote work and urban flight bring liberal voters. Examples: Atlanta suburbs, DFW exurbs, Denver metro.
Volatility
7.5
Elasticity
Highly elastic
Trend
+1.2/yr (blue)
Quick Stats
2024 ResultD+58.1
2020→2024 SwingR+5.5%
Voting StreakD since 1984
Elections on Record34
Demographics
Population238,643
Median Age
35.3(US: 38.4)
College (BA+)
118.5%(US: 47.9%)
Median Income
$137,387(US: $78k)
White (non-Hisp)
58.8%(US: 57.5%)
Hispanic
15.7%(US: 18.6%)
Black
8.8%(US: 12.3%)
Asian
10.3%(US: 5.7%)
Homeownership
41.9%(US: 64.2%)
Poverty Rate
7.1%(US: 12.4%)
Veterans
6.3%(US: 6.4%)
Presidential Elections
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 77.5%(100,446) | 19.5%(25,223) | D+58.1 | -5.5 |
| 2020 | 80.6%(105,344) | 17.1%(22,318) | D+63.5 | +4.3 |
| 2016 | 75.8%(92,016) | 16.6%(20,186) | D+59.2 | +19.4 |
| 2012 | 69.1%(81,269) | 29.3%(34,474) | D+39.8 | -4.8 |
| 2008 | 71.7%(78,994) | 27.1%(29,876) | D+44.6 | +8.3 |
| 2004 | 67.6%(63,987) | 31.3%(29,635) | D+36.3 | +10.3 |
| 2000 | 60.1%(50,260) | 34.2%(28,555) | D+26.0 | +0.2 |
| 1996 | 60.5%(45,573) | 34.6%(26,106) | D+25.8 | -0.1 |
| 1992 | 57.8%(47,756) | 31.9%(26,376) | D+25.9 | +17.8 |
| 1988 | 53.5%(40,314) | 45.4%(34,191) | D+8.1 | +5.1 |
Senate Elections
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 78.7%(100,725) | 21.3%(27,269) | D+57.4 | -1.5 |
| 2020 | 79.4%(102,880) | 20.5%(26,590) | D+58.9 | -7.3 |
| 2018 | 81.6%(87,258) | 15.4%(16,495) | D+66.2 | +22.6 |
| 2014 | 70.5%(47,709) | 26.9%(18,239) | D+43.5 | +0.4 |
| 2012 | 71.4%(82,689) | 28.3%(32,807) | D+43.1 | -10.5 |
| 2008 | 76.0%(82,119) | 22.4%(24,232) | D+53.5 | +7.3 |
| 2006 | 72.6%(53,021) | 26.3%(19,200) | D+46.3 | +119.7 |
| 2002 | 0.0%(0) | 73.4%(36,508) | R+73.4 | -105.8 |
| 2000 | 66.2%(54,651) | 33.8%(27,871) | D+32.4 | +27.7 |
| 1996 | 52.3%(38,698) | 47.5%(35,187) | D+4.7 | -37.5 |
Governor Elections
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 83.8%(83,657) | 16.0%(15,929) | D+67.8 | +7.0 |
| 2017 | 79.9%(68,093) | 19.1%(16,268) | D+60.8 | +11.4 |
| 2013 | 71.6%(48,346) | 22.2%(14,978) | D+49.4 | +18.2 |
| 2009 | 65.5%(36,949) | 34.3%(19,325) | D+31.2 | -19.1 |
| 2005 | 74.3%(42,319) | 23.9%(13,631) | D+50.3 | +12.8 |
| 2001 | 68.3%(35,990) | 30.8%(16,214) | D+37.5 | +12.3 |
| 1997 | 62.0%(30,736) | 36.8%(18,252) | D+25.2 | -1.9 |
| 1993 | 63.3%(32,736) | 36.2%(18,719) | D+27.1 | -7.2 |
| 1989 | 67.1%(35,716) | 32.8%(17,452) | D+34.3 | +4.0 |
| 1985 | 65.2%(26,436) | 34.8%(14,124) | D+30.4 | +11.8 |
Primary Election History
| Year | Party | Winner | Runner-up | Nominee? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Dem | Joe Biden(48.2%) | Elizabeth Warren(20.0%) | ✓ |
| 2016 | Dem | Hillary Clinton(66.8%) | Bernie Sanders(32.8%) | ✓ |
| 2008 | Dem | Barack Obama(62.6%) | Hillary Clinton(36.5%) | ✓ |
✓ = County picked eventual party nominee