Maricopa County, Arizona: Professional Migration
Arizona · Presidential Elections 1912–2024
R+3.5
2024 Margin
R+5.6%
2020→2024 Swing
R since 2024
Voting Streak
🏘️ Prof. Migration
Classification
4.4M
Population
Maricopa County, Arizona voted R+3.5 for Donald Trump in 2024, with Trump receiving 1,051,531 votes (51.01%). This represented a R+5.6% swing toward Republicans compared to 2020. The county has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2024.
Electoral Behavior
🏘️
Professional MigrationView all
Growing metro exurbs and suburbs receiving educated professionals from cities. These areas are shifting blue as remote work and urban flight bring liberal voters. Examples: Atlanta suburbs, DFW exurbs, Denver metro.
Volatility
2.6
Elasticity
Responsive
Trend
Stable
Quick Stats
2024 ResultR+3.5
2020→2024 SwingR+5.6%
Voting StreakR since 2024
Elections on Record29
Demographics
Population4,420,568
Median Age
37.1(US: 38.4)
College (BA+)
49.4%(US: 47.9%)
Median Income
$80,675(US: $78k)
White (non-Hisp)
53.4%(US: 57.5%)
Hispanic
30.9%(US: 18.6%)
Black
5.9%(US: 12.3%)
Asian
4.3%(US: 5.7%)
Homeownership
65.0%(US: 64.2%)
Poverty Rate
11.3%(US: 12.4%)
Veterans
6.9%(US: 6.4%)
Presidential Elections
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 47.5%(980,016) | 51.0%(1,051,531) | R+3.5 | -5.6 |
| 2020 | 50.1%(1,040,774) | 48.0%(995,665) | D+2.2 | +5.0 |
| 2016 | 44.8%(702,907) | 47.7%(747,361) | R+2.8 | +7.8 |
| 2012 | 43.6%(602,288) | 54.3%(749,885) | R+10.7 | -0.1 |
| 2008 | 44.1%(602,166) | 54.7%(746,448) | R+10.6 | +4.0 |
| 2004 | 42.3%(504,849) | 56.9%(679,455) | R+14.6 | -4.3 |
| 2000 | 42.9%(386,683) | 53.2%(479,967) | R+10.3 | -7.7 |
| 1996 | 44.5%(363,991) | 47.2%(386,015) | R+2.7 | +5.8 |
| 1992 | 32.6%(285,457) | 41.1%(360,049) | R+8.5 | +22.5 |
| 1988 | 33.9%(230,952) | 64.9%(442,337) | R+31.0 | +13.9 |
Senate Elections
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 51.0%(732,761) | 46.8%(672,505) | D+4.2 | +9.6 |
| 2012 | 45.0%(602,809) | 50.4%(675,500) | R+5.4 | +9.0 |
| 2006 | 41.3%(364,661) | 55.7%(491,721) | R+14.4 | +66.7 |
| 2000 | 0.0%(0) | 81.1%(663,756) | R+81.1 | -60.0 |
| 1994 | 35.8%(228,021) | 56.9%(362,348) | R+21.1 | -24.3 |
| 1988 | 50.5%(340,814) | 47.4%(319,561) | D+3.1 | -1.6 |
| 1982 | 51.1%(199,671) | 46.3%(180,917) | D+4.8 | +3.3 |
| 1976 | 49.3%(206,481) | 47.8%(200,395) | D+1.4 | +24.3 |
| 1970 | 38.6%(88,284) | 61.4%(140,555) | R+22.8 | -14.1 |
| 1964 | 45.6%(118,174) | 54.4%(140,763) | R+8.7 | +10.7 |
Governor Elections
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 42.1%(603,055) | 55.8%(800,210) | R+13.8 | +0.5 |
| 2014 | 40.4%(346,879) | 54.7%(469,200) | R+14.3 | -1.4 |
| 2010 | 41.9%(415,142) | 54.8%(543,045) | R+12.9 | -36.1 |
| 2006 | 60.6%(538,383) | 37.5%(332,570) | D+23.2 | +26.7 |
| 2002 | 44.4%(313,107) | 48.0%(337,954) | R+3.5 | +24.1 |
| 1998 | 34.4%(198,175) | 62.0%(357,308) | R+27.6 | -15.7 |
| 1994 | 42.3%(272,298) | 54.3%(349,473) | R+12.0 | -0.1 |
| 1991 | 44.0%(248,691) | 56.0%(315,811) | R+11.9 | +2.4 |
| 1986 | 28.8%(142,540) | 43.1%(213,049) | R+14.3 | -36.0 |
| 1982 | 58.3%(228,217) | 36.5%(142,938) | D+21.8 | +25.1 |
Primary Election History
| Year | Party | Winner | Runner-up | Nominee? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Dem | Joe Biden(89.6%) | Other(7.6%) | ✓ |
| 2024 | GOP | Donald Trump(76.6%) | Nikki Haley(19.8%) | ✓ |
| 2020 | Dem | Joe Biden(43.0%) | Bernie Sanders(33.7%) | ✓ |
| 2016 | Dem | Hillary Clinton(56.7%) | Bernie Sanders(41.3%) | ✓ |
| 2016 | GOP | Donald Trump(44.8%) | Ted Cruz(26.3%) | ✓ |
| 2012 | Dem | Barack Obama(100.0%) | — | — |
| 2008 | Dem | Hillary Clinton(49.4%) | Barack Obama(42.6%) | ✗ |
✓ = County picked eventual party nominee