Bay County, Michigan: Declining Industrial Metro
Michigan · Presidential Elections 1892–2024
R+14.7
2024 Margin
R+3.1%
2020→2024 Swing
R since 2016
Voting Streak
🏭 Rust Belt
Classification
104K
Population
Bay County, Michigan voted R+14.7 for Donald Trump in 2024, with Trump receiving 34,792 votes (56.72%). This represented a R+3.1% swing toward Republicans compared to 2020. The county has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2016.
Electoral Behavior
🏭
Declining Industrial MetroView all
Rust Belt urban centers that voted for Obama but have shifted dramatically toward Republicans. Former manufacturing hubs experiencing economic decline and Democratic erosion.
Volatility
5.6
Elasticity
Moderate
Trend
-1.3/yr (red)
Quick Stats
2024 ResultR+14.7
2020→2024 SwingR+3.1%
Voting StreakR since 2016
Elections on Record34
Demographics
Population103,856
Median Age
43.6(US: 38.4)
College (BA+)
28.3%(US: 47.9%)
Median Income
$57,887(US: $78k)
White (non-Hisp)
88.6%(US: 57.5%)
Hispanic
5.8%(US: 18.6%)
Black
1.6%(US: 12.3%)
Homeownership
76.4%(US: 64.2%)
Poverty Rate
14.0%(US: 12.4%)
Veterans
7.9%(US: 6.4%)
Presidential Elections
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 42.0%(25,767) | 56.7%(34,792) | R+14.7 | -3.1 |
| 2020 | 43.4%(26,151) | 55.0%(33,125) | R+11.6 | +1.0 |
| 2016 | 40.6%(21,642) | 53.2%(28,328) | R+12.6 | -18.1 |
| 2012 | 52.0%(27,877) | 46.5%(24,911) | D+5.5 | -9.8 |
| 2008 | 56.8%(32,589) | 41.4%(23,795) | D+15.3 | +5.5 |
| 2004 | 54.4%(31,049) | 44.6%(25,448) | D+9.8 | -2.0 |
| 2000 | 54.7%(28,251) | 42.9%(22,150) | D+11.8 | -12.0 |
| 1996 | 56.1%(27,835) | 32.3%(16,038) | D+23.8 | +5.2 |
| 1992 | 48.7%(26,492) | 30.1%(16,383) | D+18.6 | +3.3 |
| 1988 | 57.4%(28,225) | 42.1%(20,710) | D+15.3 | +22.6 |
Senate Elections
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 43.7%(26,313) | 53.4%(32,145) | R+9.7 | -2.6 |
| 2020 | 45.5%(27,072) | 52.6%(31,314) | R+7.1 | -6.6 |
| 2018 | 48.6%(22,502) | 49.1%(22,752) | R+0.5 | -21.3 |
| 2014 | 58.1%(21,934) | 37.3%(14,083) | D+20.8 | -3.8 |
| 2012 | 60.6%(31,840) | 36.0%(18,940) | D+24.6 | -11.5 |
| 2008 | 66.2%(36,807) | 30.2%(16,766) | D+36.0 | +9.1 |
| 2006 | 62.6%(28,992) | 35.7%(16,540) | D+26.9 | -13.8 |
| 2002 | 69.7%(27,361) | 28.9%(11,368) | D+40.7 | +37.7 |
| 2000 | 50.1%(25,503) | 47.1%(23,986) | D+3.0 | -26.6 |
| 1996 | 64.1%(31,377) | 34.5%(16,885) | D+29.6 | +24.6 |
Governor Elections
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 50.3%(24,783) | 47.6%(23,448) | D+2.7 | -0.1 |
| 2018 | 49.8%(23,159) | 47.0%(21,847) | D+2.8 | -0.9 |
| 2014 | 50.5%(19,307) | 46.9%(17,899) | D+3.7 | +25.1 |
| 2010 | 38.2%(15,147) | 59.6%(23,622) | R+21.4 | -44.6 |
| 2006 | 60.9%(28,286) | 37.7%(17,502) | D+23.2 | +15.2 |
| 2002 | 53.3%(21,190) | 45.3%(18,001) | D+8.0 | +29.7 |
| 1998 | 39.1%(15,017) | 60.8%(23,343) | R+21.7 | -1.2 |
| 1994 | 39.7%(15,982) | 60.3%(24,244) | R+20.5 | -34.2 |
| 1990 | 56.5%(19,646) | 42.8%(14,886) | D+13.7 | -36.8 |
| 1986 | 75.1%(24,590) | 24.6%(8,048) | D+50.5 | +34.1 |
Primary Election History
| Year | Party | Winner | Runner-up | Nominee? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | GOP | Donald Trump(74.1%) | Nikki Haley(21.3%) | ✓ |
| 2020 | Dem | Joe Biden(52.2%) | Bernie Sanders(32.9%) | ✓ |
| 2016 | Dem | Bernie Sanders(49.3%) | Hillary Clinton(46.0%) | ✗ |
| 2016 | GOP | Donald Trump(42.8%) | Ted Cruz(27.1%) | ✓ |
| 2008 | Dem | Hillary Clinton(67.4%) | Other(32.6%) | ✗ |
✓ = County picked eventual party nominee