Race-by-race ratings for the 2026 U.S. Senate, Governor, and House elections. Driven by 165 years of election data and original analysis.
* Open seat
Pete Ricketts (R)
Osborn isn't a Democrat but has been endorsed by the Nebraska Democratic Party — and has a legitimate path. Ricketts won convincingly in 2024, but under the cover of Osborn's near-upset of Fischer. Nebraska has moved wildly before: populist James Weaver pulled 41.5% here in 1892, just behind Harrison's 43.6%. Coming off 2024 looking pretty good, in echoes of industrial revolutions past, Osborn may be the rise of the Prairie Populist.
Open seat (Joni Ernst retiring)
Democrats have a couple of decent to excellent candidates running, but this is a rare race where the incumbent hanging things up almost certainly works against Democrats. Ernst's likely replacement has a great electoral track record and raises lots of money.
Open seat (Gary Peters retiring)
Peters retirement hurts and national Democrats are a bit leery about all candidates. If Dems lose a seat, it would likely be this one!
Susan Collins (R)
Collins has performed incredibly well before, but despite blowing out polling in 2020, she looked far closer to human with a single digit loss. High variance here, but I'd rather be the Democrats.
Dan Sullivan (R)
Peltola benefits from Trump's low approval and her large overperformance despite the close 2024 loss — lost by 2 in a Trump +13 state. Given about equally formidable opposition, the math looks good for Peltola taking out Sullivan.
Open seat
Sherrod Brown wasn't as great a candidate as you might think (did maybe 5% better than expected), but both a better contrast with Husted and a better national environment will more than make up his 2024 margin.
John Cornyn (R)
Beto O'Rourke proved Texas was within reach, if only for a moment. Despite its turn red in 2024, the very people Trump is losing are often his new supporters in Texas. If Talarico beats Crockett — if Crockett's the nominee, it's immediately Safe GOP. Only a chance for Dems with a perfect storm: candidate misfires after a contentious primary, all compounding.
Jon Ossoff (D)
Ossoff won in significantly tougher terrain last time (January runoff over Perdue) and has proven to be reasonably popular. GOP will have better targets.
Open seat (Thom Tillis retiring)
Perfect storm for Democrats with dream recruit two-term governor Roy Cooper. This one has a chance to not see much spending even — Cooper has the clear edge.
Open seat (Jeanne Shaheen retiring)
Pappas is reasonably strong, but does face potentially strong challengers. But this year, much rather be D than R.
Open seat
Moody doesn't strike me as an especially good candidate, but good luck getting Dems to commit to such an expensive media market after recent results. Still, if things got truly out of hand, here would be a place it would happen.
Ed Markey (D)
The general is not in question, but the primary is worth watching: Seth Moulton is challenging Markey, setting up an intra-party fight between the progressive incumbent and a more centrist challenger.